I agree with your point, but just because someone can’t enumerate 299 possibilities, does not mean they should not reserve probability space for unknown unknowns.
Put another way, in calculating these odds you must leave room for race-ending catastrophes that you didn’t even imagine.
I believe this point is important, that we succumb to multiple biases in this area, and that these biases have affected the decision-making of many rationalists.
I am preparing a Less Wrong post on this and related topics.
I agree with your point, but just because someone can’t enumerate 299 possibilities, does not mean they should not reserve probability space for unknown unknowns. Put another way, in calculating these odds you must leave room for race-ending catastrophes that you didn’t even imagine. I believe this point is important, that we succumb to multiple biases in this area, and that these biases have affected the decision-making of many rationalists. I am preparing a Less Wrong post on this and related topics.
Hmmm… I think “something I can’t think of” should qualify as a category, myself.