The situation is not identical in the non-anthropic case in that there are equal numbers of rooms but differing numbers of marbles.
There’s only one green room (so observing it is evidence for heads-green with p=0.5) whereas there are 18 green marbles, so p(heads|green)= ((18/20)/0.5)*0.5 = 0.9.
The situation is not identical in the non-anthropic case in that there are equal numbers of rooms but differing numbers of marbles.
There’s only one green room (so observing it is evidence for heads-green with p=0.5) whereas there are 18 green marbles, so p(heads|green)= ((18/20)/0.5)*0.5 = 0.9.
Sorry for delayed response.
Anyways, how so? 20 rooms in the original problem, 20 marbles in mine.
what fraction are green vs red derives from examining a logical coin, etc etc etc… I’m not sure where you’re getting the only one green room thing.