No, the dilemma depends on having many copies. You’re trying to optimize the outcome averaged over all copies (before the copies are made), because you don’t know which copy “you” will “be”.
In the no-copies / amnesia version, the updateless approach is ovbiously correct. You have no data to update on (you don’t know how many times you’ve woken and forgotten about it), so you always refuse to play, even in a green room. IOW: awakening in a green room tells you nothing about the coin tosses, since either way you’d awake in a green room at least once.
No, the dilemma depends on having many copies. You’re trying to optimize the outcome averaged over all copies (before the copies are made), because you don’t know which copy “you” will “be”.
In the no-copies / amnesia version, the updateless approach is ovbiously correct. You have no data to update on (you don’t know how many times you’ve woken and forgotten about it), so you always refuse to play, even in a green room. IOW: awakening in a green room tells you nothing about the coin tosses, since either way you’d awake in a green room at least once.