I remain convinced that the probability is 90%.
The confusion is over whether you want to maximize the expectation of the number of utilons there will be if you wake up in a green room or the expectation of the number of utilons you will observe if you wake up in a green room.
I remain convinced that the probability is 90%.
The confusion is over whether you want to maximize the expectation of the number of utilons there will be if you wake up in a green room or the expectation of the number of utilons you will observe if you wake up in a green room.