EDIT: at first I thought this was equivalent, but then I tried the numbers and realized it’s not.
I’ll flip a coin to choose which roulette wheel to spin. If it comes
up heads, I’ll spin a wheel that’s 90% green and 10% red. If it
comes up tails, a wheel that’s 10% green and 90% red.
I won’t show you the wheel or the coin (at this point) but I’ll tell
you which color came up.
If it’s green, you can bet on the coinflip: win $3 for heads
and lose $13 for tails.
If the color is green, do you take the bet?
EDIT: After playing with the numbers, I think reason it’s not equivalent is that in the rooms, there are always some of you who see green. I still think it’s possible to create an equivalent situation in real life, without copying people. Maybe if you had a group of people draw lots and all the people who get green vote on whether to bet on which lot they were drawing from.
EDIT: at first I thought this was equivalent, but then I tried the numbers and realized it’s not.
I’ll flip a coin to choose which roulette wheel to spin. If it comes up heads, I’ll spin a wheel that’s 90% green and 10% red. If it comes up tails, a wheel that’s 10% green and 90% red.
I won’t show you the wheel or the coin (at this point) but I’ll tell you which color came up.
If it’s green, you can bet on the coinflip: win $3 for heads and lose $13 for tails.
If the color is green, do you take the bet?
EDIT: After playing with the numbers, I think reason it’s not equivalent is that in the rooms, there are always some of you who see green. I still think it’s possible to create an equivalent situation in real life, without copying people. Maybe if you had a group of people draw lots and all the people who get green vote on whether to bet on which lot they were drawing from.