For example, I do the kids breakfast and pack Lily’s lunch in the morning (hence the thermos experimentation). I then pay attention to what comes home uneaten in the lunchbox to try to figure out what I should send next time.
That’s how you get survivorship bias, you have to look at the lunches that don’t make it back, not the ones that do.
I’m struggling to figure out which module of my brain is misfiring right now. I think on some level I might have just not internalised an essentialist enough account of survivorship bias so all I have are analogies. Anything resembling planes coming back to base with damage on them will set off the alarm.
So far the lunchbox has always come back. While normally I treat individual foods failing to come back as a good thing, if I packed something that resulted in the whole lunchbox failing to come back it would be important not to count that as a massive success.
[silly joke comment]
That’s how you get survivorship bias, you have to look at the lunches that don’t make it back, not the ones that do.
I’m struggling to figure out which module of my brain is misfiring right now. I think on some level I might have just not internalised an essentialist enough account of survivorship bias so all I have are analogies. Anything resembling planes coming back to base with damage on them will set off the alarm.
So far the lunchbox has always come back. While normally I treat individual foods failing to come back as a good thing, if I packed something that resulted in the whole lunchbox failing to come back it would be important not to count that as a massive success.