I think to this approach to be beneficial the predictions would need to be much more narrowly defined that described here. Things along the lines or Offence will rush or pass or even more fine grained such as rush to short side of the field with tackle pulling, rush with sweep and back up of a pitchback. For passing some idea about receiver type—wide or one of the backs—as well as how deep. For punts and kick-offs perhaps things like what receiver is targeted or take away option to return, or for punts various fake play scenario.
If we just say “succeed” I’m not sure what we’re really testing as we don’t seem to be saying anything about the play to be executed so seems like the success/fail results will have a lot of noise in them.
I do agree that sports offers a great environment for such efforts for the reasons you’ve listed. So perhaps just adding clarifying points here.
I think to this approach to be beneficial the predictions would need to be much more narrowly defined that described here. Things along the lines or Offence will rush or pass or even more fine grained such as rush to short side of the field with tackle pulling, rush with sweep and back up of a pitchback. For passing some idea about receiver type—wide or one of the backs—as well as how deep. For punts and kick-offs perhaps things like what receiver is targeted or take away option to return, or for punts various fake play scenario.
If we just say “succeed” I’m not sure what we’re really testing as we don’t seem to be saying anything about the play to be executed so seems like the success/fail results will have a lot of noise in them.
I do agree that sports offers a great environment for such efforts for the reasons you’ve listed. So perhaps just adding clarifying points here.