I’m not certain that that would be wrong. From the observations they have access to, they have no way of telling the difference between different points in the night.
If they can see the moon, however, this changes. Similarly, if they can wait an hour and see what changes. Similarly if they can see the stars, and know roughly what month it is. Because it’s not just the most extreme people who’ll update their beliefs.
(By the way; the averaging thing only works if the individuals don’t communicate about their guesses, which means that this isn’t in any way an accurate representation of the behaviour described in this article!)
I’m not certain that that would be wrong. From the observations they have access to, they have no way of telling the difference between different points in the night.
If they can see the moon, however, this changes. Similarly, if they can wait an hour and see what changes. Similarly if they can see the stars, and know roughly what month it is. Because it’s not just the most extreme people who’ll update their beliefs.
(By the way; the averaging thing only works if the individuals don’t communicate about their guesses, which means that this isn’t in any way an accurate representation of the behaviour described in this article!)