I love GEB! For these kids, it’s not going to be a proof-based class. I’m more trying to get them to understand that stat is “a guide to how to update beliefs” rather than “a list of tests with sig/not sig outcomes.”
If you can articulate and better define what the actual handful core insights are that you hope to transmit maybe you or someone else here can pinpoint better literature for what you are looking for.
It seems to me Eliezer’s “Probability is in the Mind” post may include at least in part of what you are looking for. Maybe you can slightly edit and streamline it for the purpose of making it more approachable to your audience.
Highlights from that post:
Quote #1
Jaynes was of the opinion that probabilities were in the mind, not in the environment—that probabilities express ignorance, states of partial information; and if I am ignorant of a phenomenon, that is a fact about my state of mind, not a fact about the phenomenon.
Quote #2
The frequentist says, “No. Saying ‘probability 0.5’ means that the coin has an inherent propensity to come up heads as often as tails, so that if we flipped the coin infinitely many times, the ratio of heads to tails would approach 1:1. But we know that the coin is biased, so it can have any probability of coming up heads except 0.5.”
The Bayesian says, “Uncertainty exists in the map, not in the territory. In the real world, the coin has either come up heads, or come up tails. Any talk of ‘probability’ must refer to the information that I have about the coin—my state of partial ignorance and partial knowledge—not just the coin itself.
I love GEB! For these kids, it’s not going to be a proof-based class. I’m more trying to get them to understand that stat is “a guide to how to update beliefs” rather than “a list of tests with sig/not sig outcomes.”
If you can articulate and better define what the actual handful core insights are that you hope to transmit maybe you or someone else here can pinpoint better literature for what you are looking for.
It seems to me Eliezer’s “Probability is in the Mind” post may include at least in part of what you are looking for. Maybe you can slightly edit and streamline it for the purpose of making it more approachable to your audience.
Highlights from that post:
Quote #1
Quote #2