Create vaccine that effectively brings R0 under 1 (reducing spread being the key factor here)
Immunize population
Isolate immunized population
If 1 and 2, then we don’t need 3, right?
If 2 and 3 but not 1, then we have something that resembles our current situation, with a lot of people arguing contentiously (rather than productively) over whether 3 is necessary (or helpful) and whether 2 is even necessary (or helpful) given that 1 is absent.
The other question that could provoke argument/contention is “whether the COVID vaccines could have brought R0 under 1 if they were implemented more efficiently.” This brings us back to the question of how to evaluate COVID data, because I can see the two movies on the same screen being something like “we could have ended this a year early if you had just taken the vaccines” and “we knew the vaccines weren’t going to solve the problem a year before you did.”
Mike was talking about bringing R0 under 1 and not just about reducing disease/death.
Got it. So the proposed solution on the table is:
Create vaccine that effectively brings R0 under 1 (reducing spread being the key factor here)
Immunize population
Isolate immunized population
If 1 and 2, then we don’t need 3, right?
If 2 and 3 but not 1, then we have something that resembles our current situation, with a lot of people arguing contentiously (rather than productively) over whether 3 is necessary (or helpful) and whether 2 is even necessary (or helpful) given that 1 is absent.
The other question that could provoke argument/contention is “whether the COVID vaccines could have brought R0 under 1 if they were implemented more efficiently.” This brings us back to the question of how to evaluate COVID data, because I can see the two movies on the same screen being something like “we could have ended this a year early if you had just taken the vaccines” and “we knew the vaccines weren’t going to solve the problem a year before you did.”