I don’t have a lot of trouble with overconfidence bias; I base my time-to-finish-project estimates on other projects I’ve done in the past, and it’s generally about right. If it’s a kind of project I’ve never done before, I leave a bit more time. Also, I’m busy enough, during the school year anyway, that I’ll never be able to “kick back and relax” unless I put something aside for later.
I don’t have a lot of trouble with overconfidence bias; I base my time-to-finish-project estimates on other projects I’ve done in the past
Awesome—that’s a great skill to have taught yourself. You’ll have to keep an eye out for black swans—but you should be able to adapt the skill to new areas of expertise as you go along.
I don’t have a lot of trouble with overconfidence bias; I base my time-to-finish-project estimates on other projects I’ve done in the past, and it’s generally about right. If it’s a kind of project I’ve never done before, I leave a bit more time. Also, I’m busy enough, during the school year anyway, that I’ll never be able to “kick back and relax” unless I put something aside for later.
Awesome—that’s a great skill to have taught yourself. You’ll have to keep an eye out for black swans—but you should be able to adapt the skill to new areas of expertise as you go along.