That assumes senescence—which is roughly equivalent to assuming DOOM.
Sure, if you already know that you will age and die, then you will probably die.
The person-moments version of the argument would seem to apply if you wake up in a box—and don’t have any idea about how old you are—which seems rather unlikely.
I never said anything about aging. You also don’t have to assume you’ll ever die. I’m infinitely more likely to be 20 if I’ll die than if I won’t.
It wouldn’t apply if you don’t know how old you are, as it’s just applying the evidence given by knowing how old you are.
Are you saying it’s only true if you learn how old you are and you didn’t already know? Even if you already knew, there’s still P(you’ll die at 40) and P(you’ll die at 40|you’re 20). The former isn’t really useful in of itself, but it works as a good sanity check. For example, if you insist P(you’ll die eventually|you’re 20) = 50%, you’ll get P(you’ll die eventually) = 0%, along with P(you’re hallucinating that you’re 20) = 0%, etc. There is clearly something wrong here.
I could similarly tell you P(coin lands on heads) = 50%, even though I saw it land on tails, and P(coin lands on heads|I saw it land on tails) = 100%.
Incidentally, you can’t use whatever person you happen to be as a reference class without certain corrections. Also, you need the same corrections if you use descendants of Earth as a reference class.
That assumes senescence—which is roughly equivalent to assuming DOOM.
Sure, if you already know that you will age and die, then you will probably die.
The person-moments version of the argument would seem to apply if you wake up in a box—and don’t have any idea about how old you are—which seems rather unlikely.
I never said anything about aging. You also don’t have to assume you’ll ever die. I’m infinitely more likely to be 20 if I’ll die than if I won’t.
It wouldn’t apply if you don’t know how old you are, as it’s just applying the evidence given by knowing how old you are.
Are you saying it’s only true if you learn how old you are and you didn’t already know? Even if you already knew, there’s still P(you’ll die at 40) and P(you’ll die at 40|you’re 20). The former isn’t really useful in of itself, but it works as a good sanity check. For example, if you insist P(you’ll die eventually|you’re 20) = 50%, you’ll get P(you’ll die eventually) = 0%, along with P(you’re hallucinating that you’re 20) = 0%, etc. There is clearly something wrong here.
I could similarly tell you P(coin lands on heads) = 50%, even though I saw it land on tails, and P(coin lands on heads|I saw it land on tails) = 100%.
Incidentally, you can’t use whatever person you happen to be as a reference class without certain corrections. Also, you need the same corrections if you use descendants of Earth as a reference class.