Zoltan is articulate, extremely good looking, and willing to put in a lot of work to become president. Imagine one or both of the major U.S. political parties becomes discredited and Zoltan gets significant financial support from a high-tech billionaire. He could then have a non-trivial chance of becoming president, although the odds of this ever happening is still under .1%.
But what he talks about is completely unaligned with what 99% of the electorate gives half a shit about. Even though I suppose recent political-theater events in the united states proves that giving off a strong crackpot vibe is not an automatic disqualification, there is that to contend with.
I’d guess less than 5% chance for each major party to get discredited, maybe 50% chance that after that a high-tech billionaire decides it’s a good time to try to shape politics, maybe a 2% chance that s/he chooses Zoltan, and no more than a 20% chance that Zoltan wins after all that happens. I make that about a 0.0005% chance, being quite generous.
So, yeah, “remotely theoretically possible” is about as far as it goes.
Billionaires attempt to shape politics right now and I don’t see why would they stop. I think that the 50% chance is actually a 100% chance. However the probability of choosing specifically Zoltan I would estimate as considerably less than 2%.
maybe 50% chance that after that a high-tech billionaire decides it’s a good time to try to shape politics
If both parties become discredited I say at least 80% chance that more than one high-tech billionaire will try to shape politics, but otherwise a good estimate.
I think he may be elected in 2024, but the main point of campaign is to raise awareness about life extension and FAI topics.
By associating them with extreme weirdness?
What makes that 2024 thing even remotely theoretically possible?
Zoltan is articulate, extremely good looking, and willing to put in a lot of work to become president. Imagine one or both of the major U.S. political parties becomes discredited and Zoltan gets significant financial support from a high-tech billionaire. He could then have a non-trivial chance of becoming president, although the odds of this ever happening is still under .1%.
But what he talks about is completely unaligned with what 99% of the electorate gives half a shit about. Even though I suppose recent political-theater events in the united states proves that giving off a strong crackpot vibe is not an automatic disqualification, there is that to contend with.
I’d guess less than 5% chance for each major party to get discredited, maybe 50% chance that after that a high-tech billionaire decides it’s a good time to try to shape politics, maybe a 2% chance that s/he chooses Zoltan, and no more than a 20% chance that Zoltan wins after all that happens. I make that about a 0.0005% chance, being quite generous.
So, yeah, “remotely theoretically possible” is about as far as it goes.
Billionaires attempt to shape politics right now and I don’t see why would they stop. I think that the 50% chance is actually a 100% chance. However the probability of choosing specifically Zoltan I would estimate as considerably less than 2%.
If both parties become discredited I say at least 80% chance that more than one high-tech billionaire will try to shape politics, but otherwise a good estimate.
A chance under 0.1% sounds trivial to me.