Hold on. What does “extraordinary claim” mean? I see two possible meanings: (1) a claim that triggers the “absurdity heuristic”, or (2) a claim that is incompatible with many things that are already believed. The examples you gave trigger the absurdity heuristic, because they introduce large, weird structures into an area of concept space that does not normally receive updates. However, I don’t see any actual incompatibilities between them and my pre-existing beliefs.
It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks. Where “inappropriately” is measured relative to the original evidence that led you to infer those implications. If the evidence is insufficient then discount some of the associated utility. Where “insufficient” is measured intuitively. In conclusion: Act according to your best formal theories but don’t factor out your intuition.
It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks.
So if I’m driving, and someone says “look out for that deer in the road!”, that’s an extraordinary claim because swerving is a large risk? Or did you push the question over into the word “inappropriately”?
Hold on. What does “extraordinary claim” mean? I see two possible meanings: (1) a claim that triggers the “absurdity heuristic”, or (2) a claim that is incompatible with many things that are already believed. The examples you gave trigger the absurdity heuristic, because they introduce large, weird structures into an area of concept space that does not normally receive updates. However, I don’t see any actual incompatibilities between them and my pre-existing beliefs.
It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks. Where “inappropriately” is measured relative to the original evidence that led you to infer those implications. If the evidence is insufficient then discount some of the associated utility. Where “insufficient” is measured intuitively. In conclusion: Act according to your best formal theories but don’t factor out your intuition.
So if I’m driving, and someone says “look out for that deer in the road!”, that’s an extraordinary claim because swerving is a large risk? Or did you push the question over into the word “inappropriately”?