Yep, that is definitely counterevidence! Though my model did definitely predict that we would also continue seeing huge teams make contributions, but of course each marginal major contribution is still evidence.
I have more broadly updated against this hypothesis over the past year or so, though I still think there will be lots of small groups of people quite close to the cutting edge (like less than 12 months behind).
Currently the multiple on stuff like better coding tools and setting up development to be AI-guided just barely entered the stage where it feels plausible that a well-set-up team could just completely destroy large incumbents. We’ll see how it develops in the next year or so.
Yep, that is definitely counterevidence! Though my model did definitely predict that we would also continue seeing huge teams make contributions, but of course each marginal major contribution is still evidence.
I have more broadly updated against this hypothesis over the past year or so, though I still think there will be lots of small groups of people quite close to the cutting edge (like less than 12 months behind).
Currently the multiple on stuff like better coding tools and setting up development to be AI-guided just barely entered the stage where it feels plausible that a well-set-up team could just completely destroy large incumbents. We’ll see how it develops in the next year or so.