I am a forecaster on that question: the main doubt I had was if/when someone would try to do wordy things + game playing on a “single system”. Seemed plausible to me that this particular combination of capabilities never became an exciting area of research, so the date at which an AI can first do these things would then be substantially after this combination of tasks would be achievable with focused effort. Gato was a substantial update because it does exactly these tasks, so I no longer see much reason possibility that the benchmark is achieved only after the capabilities are substantially overshot.
I also tend to defer somewhat to the community.
I was at 2034 when the community was at 2042, and I updated further to 2026 on the Gato news.
I am a forecaster on that question: the main doubt I had was if/when someone would try to do wordy things + game playing on a “single system”. Seemed plausible to me that this particular combination of capabilities never became an exciting area of research, so the date at which an AI can first do these things would then be substantially after this combination of tasks would be achievable with focused effort. Gato was a substantial update because it does exactly these tasks, so I no longer see much reason possibility that the benchmark is achieved only after the capabilities are substantially overshot.
I also tend to defer somewhat to the community.
I was at 2034 when the community was at 2042, and I updated further to 2026 on the Gato news.