No, success and fame are not very informative about forecasting accuracy. Yes they are strongly indicative of other competencies, but you shouldn’t mix those in with our measure of forecasting. And nebulous unscorable statements don’t at all work as “success”, too cherry-picked and unworkable. Musk is famously uncalibrated with famously bad timeline predictions in his domain! I don’t think you should be glossing over that in this context by saying “Well he’s successful...”
If we are talking about measuring forecasting performance, then it’s more like comparing tournament Karate with trench warfare.
No, success and fame are not very informative about forecasting accuracy. Yes they are strongly indicative of other competencies, but you shouldn’t mix those in with our measure of forecasting. And nebulous unscorable statements don’t at all work as “success”, too cherry-picked and unworkable. Musk is famously uncalibrated with famously bad timeline predictions in his domain! I don’t think you should be glossing over that in this context by saying “Well he’s successful...”
If we are talking about measuring forecasting performance, then it’s more like comparing tournament Karate with trench warfare.
I’m going to steal the tournament karate and trench warfare analogy. Thanks.