Regarding the Einstein stuff, do you think Einstein’s brain had significantly more compute than a 100 IQ person? I would be very surprised if Einstein had more than, I don’t know, twice the computing power of a normal brain. And so the claim that the distance between an idiot and Einstein is far smaller than that between the idiot and a chimpanzee still seems true to me.
I’d guess that Einstein’s brain probably used something like 10% more compute than the median person.
But to the extent that there is any prediction it’s about how good software will be, and how long it will spend in the range between mediocre and excellent human performance, rather than about how big Einstein’s brain is. And that prediction seems to be faring poorly across domains.
Regarding the Einstein stuff, do you think Einstein’s brain had significantly more compute than a 100 IQ person? I would be very surprised if Einstein had more than, I don’t know, twice the computing power of a normal brain. And so the claim that the distance between an idiot and Einstein is far smaller than that between the idiot and a chimpanzee still seems true to me.
I’d guess that Einstein’s brain probably used something like 10% more compute than the median person.
But to the extent that there is any prediction it’s about how good software will be, and how long it will spend in the range between mediocre and excellent human performance, rather than about how big Einstein’s brain is. And that prediction seems to be faring poorly across domains.