there are many forms of prediction, of which narrow, precise forecasting of the kind found on prediction markets is only one
narrow forecasting is only viable for a small subset of problems, and often the most important problems aren’t amenable to narrow forecasting
narrow forecasting is much harder to fake than the other kinds. Making vague predictions and taking credit for whatever happens to happen is a misallocation of truthseeking credit.
It is possible to have valuable models without being good at narrow predictions- black swans is a useful concept but it’s very annoying how the media give Nassim Taleb credit everytime something unexpected happens.
It is possible to have models that are true but not narrow-predictive enough to be valuable [added: you can have a strong, correct model that a stock is overpriced, but unless you have a model for when it will correct it’s ~impossible to make money off that information]
Elizabeth van Nostrand comments in private chat:
I like this addition, and endorse 1-5!