It was quite hard to get to this forecast, and in the end I don’t think it will be that useful. I think it’s just generally really hard. I don’t have a clear sense for why Eliezer and I weren’t able to get to more bets, but I’m not that surprised.
I do think that this kind of betting has a lot of hazards and there’s a good chance that we are both going t come out behind in social EV. For example: (i) if you try to do it reasonably quickly then you basically just know there are reasons that your position is dumb that you just haven’t noticed, (ii) it’s easier to throw something in someone’s face as a mistake than to gloat about it as a win, (iii) there is all kinds of adverse selection...
It was quite hard to get to this forecast, and in the end I don’t think it will be that useful. I think it’s just generally really hard. I don’t have a clear sense for why Eliezer and I weren’t able to get to more bets, but I’m not that surprised.
I do think that this kind of betting has a lot of hazards and there’s a good chance that we are both going t come out behind in social EV. For example: (i) if you try to do it reasonably quickly then you basically just know there are reasons that your position is dumb that you just haven’t noticed, (ii) it’s easier to throw something in someone’s face as a mistake than to gloat about it as a win, (iii) there is all kinds of adverse selection...