asking about a Metaculus forecast of the Metaculus forecast 3 years later, implicitly predicts that Metaculus will update again within 3 years. [emphasis mine]
I feel like this is missing the key claim underlying this post: that verbal statements making implicit predictions are too hard to judge and too easy to hindsight bias about, and so aren’t strong evidence about a person’s foresight.
For instance, if Metaculus, did not, in fact, update again over the upcoming 3 years, and you were merely optimizing for the appearance of accuracy, you could claim that you weren’t making a prediction, merely voicing a question. And more likely, you and everyone else would just have forgotten about this tweet.
I don’t particularly want to take a stance on whether verbal forecasts like that one ought to be treated as part of one’s forecasting record. But insofar as the author of this post clearly doesn’t think they should be, this comment is not addressing his objection.
I feel like this is missing the key claim underlying this post: that verbal statements making implicit predictions are too hard to judge and too easy to hindsight bias about, and so aren’t strong evidence about a person’s foresight.
For instance, if Metaculus, did not, in fact, update again over the upcoming 3 years, and you were merely optimizing for the appearance of accuracy, you could claim that you weren’t making a prediction, merely voicing a question. And more likely, you and everyone else would just have forgotten about this tweet.
I don’t particularly want to take a stance on whether verbal forecasts like that one ought to be treated as part of one’s forecasting record. But insofar as the author of this post clearly doesn’t think they should be, this comment is not addressing his objection.