You’re absolutely right, that bet with Bryan gives very little information! Definitely doesn’t compare at all to a proper track record of many questions.
I think your explanation for his behavior is good. I don’t think it’s justified, or at least, I am deeply suspicious of him thinking anything thematically similar to “I have to obfuscate my forecasting competence, for the good of the world, but I’ll still tell people I’m good at it”. The more likely prior is just that people don’t want to lose influence/prestige. It’s like a Nobel laureate making predictions, and then not seeming so special after.
You’re absolutely right, that bet with Bryan gives very little information! Definitely doesn’t compare at all to a proper track record of many questions.
I think your explanation for his behavior is good. I don’t think it’s justified, or at least, I am deeply suspicious of him thinking anything thematically similar to “I have to obfuscate my forecasting competence, for the good of the world, but I’ll still tell people I’m good at it”. The more likely prior is just that people don’t want to lose influence/prestige. It’s like a Nobel laureate making predictions, and then not seeming so special after.