How do I talk about low probability events in a sensical way?
eg “RFK Jr is very unlikely to win the presidency (0.001%)” This statement is ambiguous. Does it mean he’s almost certain not to win or that the statement is almost certainly not true?
I know this sounds wonkish, but it’s a question I come to quite often when writing. I like to use words but also include numbers in brackets or footnotes. But if there are several forecasts in one sentence with different directions it can be hard to understand.
“Kamala is a slight favourite in the election (54%), but some things are clearer. She’ll probably win Virginia (83%) and probably loses North Carolina (43%)”
Something about the North Carolina subclause rubs me the wrong way. It requires several cycles to think “does the 43% mean the win or the loss”. Options:
As is
“probably loses North Carolina (43% win chance)”—this takes up quite a lot of space while reading. I don’t like things that break the flow
I only ever use words to express a probability when I don’t want to take the time to figure out a number. I would write your example as, “Kamela will win the election with p = 54%, win Virginia with p =83% and win North Carolina with p = 43%.”
Most communication questions will have different options depending on audience. Who are you communicating to, and how high-bandwidth is the discussion (lots of questions and back-and-forth with one or two people is VERY different from, say, posting on a public forum).
For your examples, it seems you’re looking for one-shot outbound communication, to a relatively wide and mostly educated audience. I personally don’t find the ambiguity in your examples particularly harmful, and any of them are probably acceptable.
If anyone complains or it bugs you, I’d EITHER go with
an end-note that all percentages are chance-to-win
a VERY short descriptor like (43% win) or even (43%W).
reduce the text rather than the quantifier—“Kamala is 54% to win” without having to say that means “slight favorite”.
To me the more natural reading is “probably looses North Caroliner (57%)”.
57% being the chance that she “looses North Caroliner”. Where as, as it is, you say “looses NC” but give the probabiltiy that she wins it. Which for me takes an extra scan to parse.
Just move the percent? Instead of “RFK Jr is very unlikely to win the presidency (0.001%)”, say “RFK Jr is very unlikely (0.001%) to win the presidency”
Communication question.
How do I talk about low probability events in a sensical way?
eg “RFK Jr is very unlikely to win the presidency (0.001%)” This statement is ambiguous. Does it mean he’s almost certain not to win or that the statement is almost certainly not true?
I know this sounds wonkish, but it’s a question I come to quite often when writing. I like to use words but also include numbers in brackets or footnotes. But if there are several forecasts in one sentence with different directions it can be hard to understand.
“Kamala is a slight favourite in the election (54%), but some things are clearer. She’ll probably win Virginia (83%) and probably loses North Carolina (43%)”
Something about the North Carolina subclause rubs me the wrong way. It requires several cycles to think “does the 43% mean the win or the loss”. Options:
As is
“probably loses North Carolina (43% win chance)”—this takes up quite a lot of space while reading. I don’t like things that break the flow
I only ever use words to express a probability when I don’t want to take the time to figure out a number. I would write your example as, “Kamela will win the election with p = 54%, win Virginia with p =83% and win North Carolina with p = 43%.”
Most communication questions will have different options depending on audience. Who are you communicating to, and how high-bandwidth is the discussion (lots of questions and back-and-forth with one or two people is VERY different from, say, posting on a public forum).
For your examples, it seems you’re looking for one-shot outbound communication, to a relatively wide and mostly educated audience. I personally don’t find the ambiguity in your examples particularly harmful, and any of them are probably acceptable.
If anyone complains or it bugs you, I’d EITHER go with
an end-note that all percentages are chance-to-win
a VERY short descriptor like (43% win) or even (43%W).
reduce the text rather than the quantifier—“Kamala is 54% to win” without having to say that means “slight favorite”.
To me the more natural reading is “probably looses North Caroliner (57%)”.
57% being the chance that she “looses North Caroliner”. Where as, as it is, you say “looses NC” but give the probabiltiy that she wins it. Which for me takes an extra scan to parse.
Just move the percent? Instead of “RFK Jr is very unlikely to win the presidency (0.001%)”, say “RFK Jr is very unlikely (0.001%) to win the presidency”