See LW wiki’s Doomsday Argument for reference.
The problem I have with this kind of reasoning is that it causes early reasoners to come to wrong conclusions (though ‘on average’ the reasoning is most probably true).
Any argument from probabilities will cause unlucky reasoners to come to wrong conclusions, but that doesn’t stop us from arguing from probabilities.
See LW wiki’s Doomsday Argument for reference.
The problem I have with this kind of reasoning is that it causes early reasoners to come to wrong conclusions (though ‘on average’ the reasoning is most probably true).
Any argument from probabilities will cause unlucky reasoners to come to wrong conclusions, but that doesn’t stop us from arguing from probabilities.