The odds that will give this the best expected value if we’re prompted to bet under a proper scoring rule
Isn’t this one incoherent unless we already have a notion of probability?
The number that will best express our uncertainty to someone calibrated on iterated events
This seems weirdly indirect. What are the criteria for “best” here?
The fraction of iterated events which would combine to produce that particular event
I’m not sure what you mean. Could you elaborate?
The frequency that will be observed if this one-shot situation is transformed into an iterated one
Is there some principled method for determining a unique (or unique up to some sort of isomorphism) way of transforming a one-shot event into an iterated one?
Isn’t this one incoherent unless we already have a notion of probability?
This seems weirdly indirect. What are the criteria for “best” here?
I’m not sure what you mean. Could you elaborate?
Is there some principled method for determining a unique (or unique up to some sort of isomorphism) way of transforming a one-shot event into an iterated one?