Well, it comes down to what we mean by probability. Standard probability isn’t designed for real agents, but imagines an objective floating observer that can’t be killed or put to sleep or duplicated, ect. One approach is to modify probability so that twice as many agents observing an phenomenon doubles the probability. Another is to insist on analysing the situation as an objective floating observer who has the same knowledge as the agent being discussed (except possibly for any indexical knowledge). Again, if this doesn’t make sense, I’ll cover it in more detail on my upcoming post on Sleeping Beauty, but I’m waiting for a week when someone hasn’t already posted on this topic.
Well, it comes down to what we mean by probability. Standard probability isn’t designed for real agents, but imagines an objective floating observer that can’t be killed or put to sleep or duplicated, ect. One approach is to modify probability so that twice as many agents observing an phenomenon doubles the probability. Another is to insist on analysing the situation as an objective floating observer who has the same knowledge as the agent being discussed (except possibly for any indexical knowledge). Again, if this doesn’t make sense, I’ll cover it in more detail on my upcoming post on Sleeping Beauty, but I’m waiting for a week when someone hasn’t already posted on this topic.