Good questions—thank you for starting this conversation.
Your assumptions about testing seem reasonable, and hopefully we’ll have confirmatory data soon.
I have with great regret stopped using microCOVID. A factor of 2 − 3 x risk multiplier seems reasonable, but I no longer entirely trust their transmission model. It’s probably still more or less valid, but Omicron is a very different disease. There’s some interesting data about it preferring the upper respiratory tract to the lungs, and about how Omicron particles behave differently in aerosols, that make me worry that transmission patterns may have changed in ways that are more complicated than a simple multiplier.
I’m hoping to see more data soon (and especially hoping that the microCOVID team will update for Omicron, although that seems somewhat in question).
Good questions—thank you for starting this conversation.
Your assumptions about testing seem reasonable, and hopefully we’ll have confirmatory data soon.
I have with great regret stopped using microCOVID. A factor of 2 − 3 x risk multiplier seems reasonable, but I no longer entirely trust their transmission model. It’s probably still more or less valid, but Omicron is a very different disease. There’s some interesting data about it preferring the upper respiratory tract to the lungs, and about how Omicron particles behave differently in aerosols, that make me worry that transmission patterns may have changed in ways that are more complicated than a simple multiplier.
I’m hoping to see more data soon (and especially hoping that the microCOVID team will update for Omicron, although that seems somewhat in question).