It might make sense to read about augur in detail and the justification for their design choices.
It’s worth understanding how scoring of predictions work. Do you have a central authority? Do you have something like Augur’s reputation?
For abstract goals like reach a useful goal it’s quite important who actually puts forward the wording of a specific question.
How can repredictions be judged? Augur has Right/Wrong/Unclear or Immoral. Immoral is particularly interesting. Did a certain person die to fix the prediction market and thus the prediction is an assignation market and should be judged as immoral or isn’t it?
What are the mechanics of the crypto-currency? If you take Augur than some bets might be make in complicated currencies like Dai. That currency might crash because the there isn’t enough insurance to pay for changing price.
Prediction markets go wrong when there a high inflation in money because the prediction market requires locking up money for a given time. If the goal is somewhere in the future there can be a requirement to pay subventions to counteract the interest someone would earn on money.
How liquid is the prediction market and how much money can be gained by effecting the result by buying shares to manipulate the price?
It might make sense to read about augur in detail and the justification for their design choices.
It’s worth understanding how scoring of predictions work. Do you have a central authority? Do you have something like Augur’s reputation?
For abstract goals like
reach a useful goalit’s quite important who actually puts forward the wording of a specific question.How can repredictions be judged? Augur has Right/Wrong/Unclear or Immoral. Immoral is particularly interesting. Did a certain person die to fix the prediction market and thus the prediction is an assignation market and should be judged as immoral or isn’t it?
What are the mechanics of the crypto-currency? If you take Augur than some bets might be make in complicated currencies like Dai. That currency might crash because the there isn’t enough insurance to pay for changing price.
Prediction markets go wrong when there a high inflation in money because the prediction market requires locking up money for a given time. If the goal is somewhere in the future there can be a requirement to pay subventions to counteract the interest someone would earn on money. How liquid is the prediction market and how much money can be gained by effecting the result by buying shares to manipulate the price?