Turns out to be fairly challenging but ultimately delivers sensible results: modestly profitable but nothing special at current prices/polygenic-scores. But things get more interesting once we get scores from n>360k studies, and the multi-generational consequences are very interesting if we can get boosts like +9 points. Of course, it’s mostly all a moot point and academic because of...
CRISPR. I’ve had a hard time getting prices because they all sound too good to be true.
To update: I’ve added estimates of how elites like Harvard undergrads would change in composition under various scenarios; value of information estimates of additional SNP datapoints; a large bibliography of papers on IQ/income/wealth; background on challenges to estimating CRISPR value; implications of being able to create unlimited eggs from stem cells; generalization of embryo selection code; and demonstration of the large gains (>2.8x) from selecting on multiple complex traits and not just IQ.
I’ve created a cost-benefit analysis of embryo selection for intelligence: http://www.gwern.net/Embryo%20selection
Turns out to be fairly challenging but ultimately delivers sensible results: modestly profitable but nothing special at current prices/polygenic-scores. But things get more interesting once we get scores from n>360k studies, and the multi-generational consequences are very interesting if we can get boosts like +9 points. Of course, it’s mostly all a moot point and academic because of...
CRISPR. I’ve had a hard time getting prices because they all sound too good to be true.
To update: I’ve added estimates of how elites like Harvard undergrads would change in composition under various scenarios; value of information estimates of additional SNP datapoints; a large bibliography of papers on IQ/income/wealth; background on challenges to estimating CRISPR value; implications of being able to create unlimited eggs from stem cells; generalization of embryo selection code; and demonstration of the large gains (>2.8x) from selecting on multiple complex traits and not just IQ.