Long ago, I looked at some data on people’s guesses in probability calibration exercises. Exercises like: how many eggs do Americans consume annually—write down a number such that you judge it X% probable the true number is less than or equal, and (100-X)% probable it is greater. I vaguely recall some such thing about the distribution of guesses. A very large number of guesses were many orders of magnitude too low, as well.
Sounds reasonable. How do you know this / what do you base that on?
Long ago, I looked at some data on people’s guesses in probability calibration exercises. Exercises like: how many eggs do Americans consume annually—write down a number such that you judge it X% probable the true number is less than or equal, and (100-X)% probable it is greater. I vaguely recall some such thing about the distribution of guesses. A very large number of guesses were many orders of magnitude too low, as well.