The main thing I was trying to show there is just that having the formalism prevents you from making logical mistakes in how to apply counting arguments in general, as I think was done in this post. So my comment is explaining how to use the formalism to avoid mistakes like that, not trying to work through the full argument for deceptive alignment.
It’s not that the formalism provides really strong evidence for deceptive alignment, it’s that it prevents you from making mistakes in your reasoning. It’s like plugging your argument into a proof-checker: it doesn’t check that your argument is correct, since the assumptions could be wrong, but it does check that your argument is sound.
The main thing I was trying to show there is just that having the formalism prevents you from making logical mistakes in how to apply counting arguments in general, as I think was done in this post. So my comment is explaining how to use the formalism to avoid mistakes like that, not trying to work through the full argument for deceptive alignment.
It’s not that the formalism provides really strong evidence for deceptive alignment, it’s that it prevents you from making mistakes in your reasoning. It’s like plugging your argument into a proof-checker: it doesn’t check that your argument is correct, since the assumptions could be wrong, but it does check that your argument is sound.