Does this mean, assume you’re in a simulation, and look for messages from the simulators?
Because that seems to be a scenario different from acausal blackmail. In acausal blackmail, the recipient of the blackmail is supposed to start out thinking they are here on Earth, then they hypothesize a distant superintelligence which is simulating an exact duplicate of themselves as a hostage, then they decide that they can’t know if they are the original on Earth or the duplicate, and then carry out certain actions just in case they are the hostage (or, for the sake of the hostage, since the hostage presumably carries out the same actions as the Earth original).
Now, the original on Earth absolutely cannot receive messages or “hints” from the distant superintelligence. They are causally isolated from it. Yet the simulated hostage is supposed to be identical. That means the hostage can’t be receiving hints either.
On the other hand, if you are receiving hints (and not just imagining them), then you are definitely in a simulation, and your situation is simply that you are a simulated being at the mercy of simulators. There’s no ambiguity about your status, and acausal decision theory is not relevant.
Is Bostrom’s original Simulation Hypothesis, the version involving ancestor-simulations, unconvincing to you? If you have decided to implement an epistemic exclusion in yourself with respect to the question of whether we are in a simulation, it is not my business to interfere with that. But we do, for predictive purposes, have to think about the fact that Bostrom’s
Simulation Hypothesis and other arguments in that vein will probably not be entirely unconvincing [by default] to any ASIs we build, given that they are not entirely unconvincing to the majority of the intelligent human population.
I am not in any way excluding the possibility of being in a simulation. I am only saying that one particular scenario that involves simulation does not make sense to me. I am asking for some way in which “acausal blackmail by a distant superintelligence” can make sense—can be rational as a belief or an action.
As I see it, by definition of the scenario, the “blackmailer” cannot communicate with the simulated entity. But then the simulated entity—to say nothing of the original, who is supposed to be the ultimate target of the blackmail—has no way of knowing what the blackmailer wants.
Does this mean, assume you’re in a simulation, and look for messages from the simulators?
Because that seems to be a scenario different from acausal blackmail. In acausal blackmail, the recipient of the blackmail is supposed to start out thinking they are here on Earth, then they hypothesize a distant superintelligence which is simulating an exact duplicate of themselves as a hostage, then they decide that they can’t know if they are the original on Earth or the duplicate, and then carry out certain actions just in case they are the hostage (or, for the sake of the hostage, since the hostage presumably carries out the same actions as the Earth original).
Now, the original on Earth absolutely cannot receive messages or “hints” from the distant superintelligence. They are causally isolated from it. Yet the simulated hostage is supposed to be identical. That means the hostage can’t be receiving hints either.
On the other hand, if you are receiving hints (and not just imagining them), then you are definitely in a simulation, and your situation is simply that you are a simulated being at the mercy of simulators. There’s no ambiguity about your status, and acausal decision theory is not relevant.
Is Bostrom’s original Simulation Hypothesis, the version involving ancestor-simulations, unconvincing to you? If you have decided to implement an epistemic exclusion in yourself with respect to the question of whether we are in a simulation, it is not my business to interfere with that. But we do, for predictive purposes, have to think about the fact that Bostrom’s Simulation Hypothesis and other arguments in that vein will probably not be entirely unconvincing [by default] to any ASIs we build, given that they are not entirely unconvincing to the majority of the intelligent human population.
I am not in any way excluding the possibility of being in a simulation. I am only saying that one particular scenario that involves simulation does not make sense to me. I am asking for some way in which “acausal blackmail by a distant superintelligence” can make sense—can be rational as a belief or an action.
As I see it, by definition of the scenario, the “blackmailer” cannot communicate with the simulated entity. But then the simulated entity—to say nothing of the original, who is supposed to be the ultimate target of the blackmail—has no way of knowing what the blackmailer wants.