If your scoring system for a conjunction statement where one part is true and the other is untrue is to score that as half-true, then the probabilities for the Reagan case are wholly reasonable.
(ie for “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers and cut federal support to local governments”, you score 1 for both parts true, 0.5 for one part true and 0 for neither part true, while for “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers” you can only score 1 for true and 0 for false).
If—and it seems reasonable—the intuitive scoring system for a conjunctive statement is similar to this, then the predictions are wholly reasonable.
This means that when there is a real conjunction, we tend to misinterpret it. It seems reasonable then to guess that we don’t have an intuitive approach to a true conjunction. If that’s the case, then the approach to overcoming the bias is to analyse joint statements to see if a partial truth scores any points—if it does, then our intuition can be trusted more than when it does not.
Depends on people’s definition of truth, surely?
If your scoring system for a conjunction statement where one part is true and the other is untrue is to score that as half-true, then the probabilities for the Reagan case are wholly reasonable.
(ie for “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers and cut federal support to local governments”, you score 1 for both parts true, 0.5 for one part true and 0 for neither part true, while for “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers” you can only score 1 for true and 0 for false).
If—and it seems reasonable—the intuitive scoring system for a conjunctive statement is similar to this, then the predictions are wholly reasonable.
This means that when there is a real conjunction, we tend to misinterpret it. It seems reasonable then to guess that we don’t have an intuitive approach to a true conjunction. If that’s the case, then the approach to overcoming the bias is to analyse joint statements to see if a partial truth scores any points—if it does, then our intuition can be trusted more than when it does not.