People who follow UDT don’t need to precommit, they have a perfectly local decision procedure: think back, figure out the best strategy, and play a part in it. The question of precommitment only arises if you follow CDT, but why would you follow CDT?
Correct, but you’re justifying UDT by arguing what you should do if you had pre-committed. A two-boxer would argue that this is incorrect because you haven’t pre-committed.
The idea of playing the best strategy can stand on its own, it doesn’t need to be justified by precommitment. I’d say the idea of myopically choosing the next move needs justification more.
For example, when you’re dealt a weak hand in poker, the temptation to fold is strong. But all good players know you must play aggressively on your weakest hands, because if you fold, you might as well light up a neon sign saying “I have a strong hand” whenever you do play aggressively, allowing your opponent to fold and cut their losses. In this case it’s clear that playing the best strategy is right, and myopically choosing the next move is wrong. You don’t need precommitment to figure it out. Sure, it’s a repeated game where your opponent can learn about you, but Newcomb’s Problem has a predictor which amounts to the same thing.
People who follow UDT don’t need to precommit, they have a perfectly local decision procedure: think back, figure out the best strategy, and play a part in it. The question of precommitment only arises if you follow CDT, but why would you follow CDT?
Correct, but you’re justifying UDT by arguing what you should do if you had pre-committed. A two-boxer would argue that this is incorrect because you haven’t pre-committed.
The idea of playing the best strategy can stand on its own, it doesn’t need to be justified by precommitment. I’d say the idea of myopically choosing the next move needs justification more.
For example, when you’re dealt a weak hand in poker, the temptation to fold is strong. But all good players know you must play aggressively on your weakest hands, because if you fold, you might as well light up a neon sign saying “I have a strong hand” whenever you do play aggressively, allowing your opponent to fold and cut their losses. In this case it’s clear that playing the best strategy is right, and myopically choosing the next move is wrong. You don’t need precommitment to figure it out. Sure, it’s a repeated game where your opponent can learn about you, but Newcomb’s Problem has a predictor which amounts to the same thing.