I currently believe it’s unlikely that Claude-3 will cause OpenAI to release their next model any sooner (they released GPT4 on Pi day after all), nor for future models
There’s now a perception that Claude is better than ChatGPT and I don’t believe that Sam Altman will allow that to persist for long.
Could you go into more details on how this would work? For example, Sam Altman wants to raise more money, but can’t raise as much since Claude-3 is better. So he waits to raise more money after releasing GPT-5 (so no change in behavior except when to raise money).
If you argue releasing GPT-5 sooner, that time has to come from somewhere. For example, suppose GPT-4 was release ready by February, but they wanted to wait until Pi day for fun. Capability researchers are still researching capabilities in the meantime regardless ff they were pressured & instead relased 1 month earlier.
Maybe arguing that earlier access allows more API access so more time finagling w/ scaffolding?
There’s now a perception that Claude is better than ChatGPT and I don’t believe that Sam Altman will allow that to persist for long.
Could you go into more details on how this would work? For example, Sam Altman wants to raise more money, but can’t raise as much since Claude-3 is better. So he waits to raise more money after releasing GPT-5 (so no change in behavior except when to raise money).
If you argue releasing GPT-5 sooner, that time has to come from somewhere. For example, suppose GPT-4 was release ready by February, but they wanted to wait until Pi day for fun. Capability researchers are still researching capabilities in the meantime regardless ff they were pressured & instead relased 1 month earlier.
Maybe arguing that earlier access allows more API access so more time finagling w/ scaffolding?
The amount of testing that is required before release is likely subjective and this might push him to reduce this.