He’s written substantial chunks of it on his blog, but there is no quantity of words he could write that could convince them.
(We’re talking about a seriously minor viewpoint held by cranks, but they’re cranks who include LW regulars, or you and I would never have heard of them in the first place. It is entirely unclear to me how convincing them is a game changer.)
The problem with the reactionaries getting rebuttals in the form of “that’s a socially horrible thing to say and you’re a horrible person, fuck you” is that viewpoints that seem supported by science but are socially shunned as unthinkable are catnip here. A rebuttal that shows that actually the argument isn’t very solid, or the science isn’t being interpreted right, or that there are large chunks of important stuff being left out of the argument would have a lot more staying power, while just bringing on the social shaming sends the signal that the reactionaries might be on to something since it seems to be hard to come up with a rebuttal that works on the same level as their arguments.
Yvain’s stuff is looking pretty good, though there could be more of it. I was talking about the general pattern of discussion that shows up in places like this subthread and seems to keep the dynamic going, and about the thing of the cranks being unconvincable. There are always going to be hardliners who stick to their guns no matter what, but there’s also going to be an audience who sees one side going, hey, argument and pile of citations here and the other side going, that’s a horrible thing to say and you’re horrible, and making their conclusions.
I’d really like to have lots more stuff at the level of quality of the (embarrassingly, also Yvain’s) Non-Libertarian FAQ arguing for progressive views, but don’t really know where to look. Everything seems to be a soup of lazy ingroup flag-waving. (This might be actually another thing that makes reaction tick. With topics polite society is inimical to, anything with obvious argumentation flaws or sloppiness gets quickly torn down and ignored, leaving behind a small group of careful and cleverly argued articles, while with progressive writings there isn’t any similar mechanism culling sloppy, but with the heart in the right place writings from the very clear, careful and well-researched ones, so the latter ones won’t get similar visibility.)
With topics polite society is inimical to, anything with obvious argumentation flaws or sloppiness gets quickly torn down and ignored, leaving behind a small group of careful and cleverly argued articles, while with progressive writings there isn’t any similar mechanism culling sloppy, but with the heart in the right place writings from the very clear, careful and well-researched ones, so the latter ones won’t get similar visibility.
Yvain has also written on this (though I can’t find the post quickly): that bad ideas will tend to have better arguments for them than good ideas, because the bad ideas need good arguments more. Though I think that is more in the form you put it: that unaccepted ideas will generally have better arguments than accepted ideas.
Yvain has also written on this (though I can’t find the post quickly): that bad ideas will tend to have better arguments for them than good ideas, because the bad ideas need good arguments more. Though I think that is more in the form you put it: that unaccepted ideas will generally have better arguments than accepted ideas.
Yvain’s post was about popular ideas, not necessarily good ideas. In particular this rephrasing violates the law of conservation of expected evidence.
Yvain also fails to note that his argument also implies that over time the mainstream position will itself drift further and further away from truth towards whatever is most convenient for signaling.
Yvain also fails to note that his argument also implies that over time the mainstream position will itself drift further and further away from truth towards whatever is most convenient for signaling.
In my experience, most of the best philosophers working on the philosophy of religion are in fact theists, due to fairly obvious selection effects. Of course, most philosophers of religion, good or not, are theists, but I think in the upper echelons of the discipline the disparity is even more stark. Atheists who get into the field tend not to be very good philosophers, with a few honorable exceptions.
So a disproportionate number of the most careful and clever arguments (which, I think, is what David meant by “best arguments”) in that field support the theistic side, the wrong side. If the only thing I knew about an article on the philosophy of religion is that it is extremely well argued, I would consider that evidence that its conclusion is false. Does this violate conservation of expected evidence?
Note that there’s a distinction between all the arguments that exist in some Platonic sense and all the arguments that exist in published form, and that there’s a distinction between arguments that are “good” in the sense of significantly raising the probability of their conclusions and arguments that are “good” in the sense of being clever and carefully constructed. In both cases, I think David was talking about the second option. He was attributing to Yvain the claim that most clever and carefully constructed arguments out of the set of published arguments are for bad ideas. I don’t agree with this claim but I don’t think it violates basic rules of probability.
Yvain has also written on this (though I can’t find the post quickly): that bad ideas will tend to have better arguments for them than good ideas, because the bad ideas need good arguments more.
Could be that too. But it seems like we’re currently in the tail end of some 150 years of reactionary attitudes mostly being mainstream and mostly being argued for with poor and lazy ingroup flag-waving arguments, with the occasional clever argument for progressivism that the mainstream finds disagreeable popping up now and then and nudging things around. Then mainstream society started actually going progressive, and now we’ve started seeing the opposite pattern, even though the reactionary and progressive ideologies don’t seem to have changed significantly.
But it seems like we’re currently in the tail end of some 150 years of reactionary attitudes mostly being mainstream and mostly being argued for with poor and lazy ingroup flag-waving arguments,
Have you ever actually read any of the original argument from 150 years ago, or are you merely going by the progressive characterization of their opponents’ arguments?
Vindication of the Rights of Women was by Mary Wollstonecraft, and from well before Mill wrote The Subjection of Women. Still, Mill’s views were certainly, as you say, radical for his time (and also more radical than those in Wollstonecraft’s essay, if I recall it at all accurately).
Yes, and Mill’s position would be considered libertarian today. In other words, if his books were published today, a lot of the people in this thread would denounce them as “reactionary”, and probably far worse names.
Which of Mill’s views do you think would be regarded as reactionary? I admit some of his views would be regarded as weird in light of more recent experience (e.g. his views on education in On Liberty are based on a very different baseline than the modern situation), but I’m having a hard time thinking of clear cases of overlap between Mill’s views and those commonly denounced as reactionary these days.
Funny thing, I was also thinking about Mill’s “On liberty” when reading this thread. I believe the issue is deeper:
In politics you often have a winning side and a losing side. The winning side can use various techniques to silence the losing side. People sympathetic to the losing side will move to meta arguments about why it is wrong to silence your opponents. -- The unfortunate, but logical, consequence is that arguing about why it is wrong to silence your opponents becomes an evidence for belonging to the losing side. An automatic status hit.
Therefore, it was easy to interpret Mill as an advocate for losing side of his days; and it is also easy to believe that he would support the losing side of today (at least indirectly by his meta arguments) if he were alive today… if what you know about him is that he argued that it is wrong to silence your opponents instead of debating them (which is a part that impressed me strongly).
If Mill advocated that even people guilty of the horrible crime of atheism should be able to publish their opinions, even if just to increase the quality of the theist arguments against them… it seems logical that today he could say the same thing about people guilty of believing in differences between people, or similar stuff. (Of course this assumes that he would be consistent in his beliefs and willing to bite the bullet.)
The problem would not be with Mills beliefs per se, but with inferences people would make from his meta arguments. And he would not even have to support the low-status people to create this association; the low-status people would create the association by quoting him often. -- And then he would have to choose between implicitly denying his support to them, or being considered a silent supporter.
I was thinking that the random person’s opinions about how the mainstream moral climate is the right and proper thing haven’t been preserved for me to read, and whatever did get preserved has probably been heavily filtered for being well-argued and interesting, but that’s not quite right. They did have newspapers, which would be archived somewhere no matter what the content, and all sorts of weird random pamphlets probably are as well. Still a lot more editorial control than Reddit, but editorial control by the contemporary people, not by present-day scholars composing the Collection of Olden Time Moral Arguments Affirming The Great Historical Narrative For Moral And Intellectual Progress.
I was analogizing the current blogs and reddits thing with people ranting to each other at bars or something, with most of the arguments being at the quality of a random people ranting at you, but on second thought that’s not really a good analogy. Face to face socializing has pretty different dynamics than media culture, and the media culture was editorialized newspapers and books and the odd self-published pamphlet by someone with enough money for that.
A third thing, which would be relevant and would be hard to go back and assess now was how community level social persuasion got done. What kind of arguments did priests use trying to convince the congregation that women’s right to vote would lead to the apocalypse, what kind of arguments did the scruffy guy on the soapbox use trying to convince factory workers to start hanging fat people with top hats and monocles from the lampposts and so on.
So I could figure out what was a popular newspaper and go read through its archives, or try to figure out which books where bestsellers and see if I can somehow find a copy and read that, and I might actually learn something more interesting about the common quality of argumentation used than by just picking up filtered-by-present-day recommended books that might be systematic outliers. I haven’t done this because it sounds like a lot of work.
EDIT: Adam Cadre’s reviews of oldpostapocalypticbooks are informing my expectations about what sort of stuff I might find if I skipped the present-day list of exemplary books the people of a past era read and went digging into the piles of half-forgotten stuff they actually read.
with the occasional clever argument for progressivism that the mainstream finds disagreeable popping up now and then and nudging things around.
So why aren’t those arguments being used to defend progressivism today? The answer, which isn’t hard to notice if you actually look at old progressive arguments, is that those arguments tend to have premisses that modern progressives no longer believe and their conclusions are also very different from modern progressive positions.
even though the reactionary and progressive ideologies don’t seem to have changed significantly.
Has there been significant change in the underlying trends where reactionaries are pessimistic about inherent human nature, consider it basically impossible to change significantly, and consider the problem of developing social mechanisms to control it something vital to social stability that takes generations and centuries to solve and is likely to end up with constraining and unintuitive solutions which will nevertheless be the best bet available, while progressives are optimistic that human nature is either benign or malleable enough that it’s possible to enact large and fast social changes and eventually educate people to make the new system work across the board, without messy, nasty and basically impossible to change facets of human nature ending up causing persistent problems?
I’d really like to have lots more stuff at the level of quality of the (embarrassingly, also Yvain’s) Non-Libertarian FAQ arguing for progressive views, but don’t really know where to look.
I will point out that the Non-Libertarian FAQ isn’t actually anti-Libertarian; it’s targeted at a specific (vocal) branch of libertarianism, which I’d call Moral Libertarianism. From the FAQ:
To the first type of libertarian, I apologize for writing a FAQ attacking a caricature of your philosophy, but unfortunately that caricature is alive and well and posting smug slogans on Facebook.
Wow, that is awesome, I did not know there was a term for that. I always wondered why there seems to be a stacking effect when it came to bad beliefs. Thanks
He’s written substantial chunks of it on his blog, but there is no quantity of words he could write that could convince them.
(We’re talking about a seriously minor viewpoint held by cranks, but they’re cranks who include LW regulars, or you and I would never have heard of them in the first place. It is entirely unclear to me how convincing them is a game changer.)
The problem with the reactionaries getting rebuttals in the form of “that’s a socially horrible thing to say and you’re a horrible person, fuck you” is that viewpoints that seem supported by science but are socially shunned as unthinkable are catnip here. A rebuttal that shows that actually the argument isn’t very solid, or the science isn’t being interpreted right, or that there are large chunks of important stuff being left out of the argument would have a lot more staying power, while just bringing on the social shaming sends the signal that the reactionaries might be on to something since it seems to be hard to come up with a rebuttal that works on the same level as their arguments.
… Did you actually read Yvain’s posts on the matter? That’s not an accurate description of them at all.
Yvain’s stuff is looking pretty good, though there could be more of it. I was talking about the general pattern of discussion that shows up in places like this subthread and seems to keep the dynamic going, and about the thing of the cranks being unconvincable. There are always going to be hardliners who stick to their guns no matter what, but there’s also going to be an audience who sees one side going, hey, argument and pile of citations here and the other side going, that’s a horrible thing to say and you’re horrible, and making their conclusions.
I’d really like to have lots more stuff at the level of quality of the (embarrassingly, also Yvain’s) Non-Libertarian FAQ arguing for progressive views, but don’t really know where to look. Everything seems to be a soup of lazy ingroup flag-waving. (This might be actually another thing that makes reaction tick. With topics polite society is inimical to, anything with obvious argumentation flaws or sloppiness gets quickly torn down and ignored, leaving behind a small group of careful and cleverly argued articles, while with progressive writings there isn’t any similar mechanism culling sloppy, but with the heart in the right place writings from the very clear, careful and well-researched ones, so the latter ones won’t get similar visibility.)
Yvain has also written on this (though I can’t find the post quickly): that bad ideas will tend to have better arguments for them than good ideas, because the bad ideas need good arguments more. Though I think that is more in the form you put it: that unaccepted ideas will generally have better arguments than accepted ideas.
Yvain’s post was about popular ideas, not necessarily good ideas. In particular this rephrasing violates the law of conservation of expected evidence.
Yvain also fails to note that his argument also implies that over time the mainstream position will itself drift further and further away from truth towards whatever is most convenient for signaling.
He did note that, in section IV in this post.
Can you elaborate? I don’t see this.
David wrote:
So would he actually treat hearing a good argument for an idea as evidence against that idea?
In my experience, most of the best philosophers working on the philosophy of religion are in fact theists, due to fairly obvious selection effects. Of course, most philosophers of religion, good or not, are theists, but I think in the upper echelons of the discipline the disparity is even more stark. Atheists who get into the field tend not to be very good philosophers, with a few honorable exceptions.
So a disproportionate number of the most careful and clever arguments (which, I think, is what David meant by “best arguments”) in that field support the theistic side, the wrong side. If the only thing I knew about an article on the philosophy of religion is that it is extremely well argued, I would consider that evidence that its conclusion is false. Does this violate conservation of expected evidence?
Note that there’s a distinction between all the arguments that exist in some Platonic sense and all the arguments that exist in published form, and that there’s a distinction between arguments that are “good” in the sense of significantly raising the probability of their conclusions and arguments that are “good” in the sense of being clever and carefully constructed. In both cases, I think David was talking about the second option. He was attributing to Yvain the claim that most clever and carefully constructed arguments out of the set of published arguments are for bad ideas. I don’t agree with this claim but I don’t think it violates basic rules of probability.
Unless I misunderstand, only if he hasn’t already updated on how many believe in the idea.
Could be that too. But it seems like we’re currently in the tail end of some 150 years of reactionary attitudes mostly being mainstream and mostly being argued for with poor and lazy ingroup flag-waving arguments, with the occasional clever argument for progressivism that the mainstream finds disagreeable popping up now and then and nudging things around. Then mainstream society started actually going progressive, and now we’ve started seeing the opposite pattern, even though the reactionary and progressive ideologies don’t seem to have changed significantly.
Have you ever actually read any of the original argument from 150 years ago, or are you merely going by the progressive characterization of their opponents’ arguments?
Mill’s “Vindication of the Rights of Women” and “On liberty” are good examples of arguing for those positions before they were mainstream.
Vindication of the Rights of Women was by Mary Wollstonecraft, and from well before Mill wrote The Subjection of Women. Still, Mill’s views were certainly, as you say, radical for his time (and also more radical than those in Wollstonecraft’s essay, if I recall it at all accurately).
Yes, and Mill’s position would be considered libertarian today. In other words, if his books were published today, a lot of the people in this thread would denounce them as “reactionary”, and probably far worse names.
Which of Mill’s views do you think would be regarded as reactionary? I admit some of his views would be regarded as weird in light of more recent experience (e.g. his views on education in On Liberty are based on a very different baseline than the modern situation), but I’m having a hard time thinking of clear cases of overlap between Mill’s views and those commonly denounced as reactionary these days.
Funny thing, I was also thinking about Mill’s “On liberty” when reading this thread. I believe the issue is deeper:
In politics you often have a winning side and a losing side. The winning side can use various techniques to silence the losing side. People sympathetic to the losing side will move to meta arguments about why it is wrong to silence your opponents. -- The unfortunate, but logical, consequence is that arguing about why it is wrong to silence your opponents becomes an evidence for belonging to the losing side. An automatic status hit.
Therefore, it was easy to interpret Mill as an advocate for losing side of his days; and it is also easy to believe that he would support the losing side of today (at least indirectly by his meta arguments) if he were alive today… if what you know about him is that he argued that it is wrong to silence your opponents instead of debating them (which is a part that impressed me strongly).
If Mill advocated that even people guilty of the horrible crime of atheism should be able to publish their opinions, even if just to increase the quality of the theist arguments against them… it seems logical that today he could say the same thing about people guilty of believing in differences between people, or similar stuff. (Of course this assumes that he would be consistent in his beliefs and willing to bite the bullet.)
The problem would not be with Mills beliefs per se, but with inferences people would make from his meta arguments. And he would not even have to support the low-status people to create this association; the low-status people would create the association by quoting him often. -- And then he would have to choose between implicitly denying his support to them, or being considered a silent supporter.
For example, his views on economics, what we would today call libertarian, have been denounced by several people in this thread.
I was thinking that the random person’s opinions about how the mainstream moral climate is the right and proper thing haven’t been preserved for me to read, and whatever did get preserved has probably been heavily filtered for being well-argued and interesting, but that’s not quite right. They did have newspapers, which would be archived somewhere no matter what the content, and all sorts of weird random pamphlets probably are as well. Still a lot more editorial control than Reddit, but editorial control by the contemporary people, not by present-day scholars composing the Collection of Olden Time Moral Arguments Affirming The Great Historical Narrative For Moral And Intellectual Progress.
I was analogizing the current blogs and reddits thing with people ranting to each other at bars or something, with most of the arguments being at the quality of a random people ranting at you, but on second thought that’s not really a good analogy. Face to face socializing has pretty different dynamics than media culture, and the media culture was editorialized newspapers and books and the odd self-published pamphlet by someone with enough money for that.
A third thing, which would be relevant and would be hard to go back and assess now was how community level social persuasion got done. What kind of arguments did priests use trying to convince the congregation that women’s right to vote would lead to the apocalypse, what kind of arguments did the scruffy guy on the soapbox use trying to convince factory workers to start hanging fat people with top hats and monocles from the lampposts and so on.
So I could figure out what was a popular newspaper and go read through its archives, or try to figure out which books where bestsellers and see if I can somehow find a copy and read that, and I might actually learn something more interesting about the common quality of argumentation used than by just picking up filtered-by-present-day recommended books that might be systematic outliers. I haven’t done this because it sounds like a lot of work.
EDIT: Adam Cadre’s reviews of old post apocalyptic books are informing my expectations about what sort of stuff I might find if I skipped the present-day list of exemplary books the people of a past era read and went digging into the piles of half-forgotten stuff they actually read.
So why aren’t those arguments being used to defend progressivism today? The answer, which isn’t hard to notice if you actually look at old progressive arguments, is that those arguments tend to have premisses that modern progressives no longer believe and their conclusions are also very different from modern progressive positions.
This is not the case as I mentioned above.
Has there been significant change in the underlying trends where reactionaries are pessimistic about inherent human nature, consider it basically impossible to change significantly, and consider the problem of developing social mechanisms to control it something vital to social stability that takes generations and centuries to solve and is likely to end up with constraining and unintuitive solutions which will nevertheless be the best bet available, while progressives are optimistic that human nature is either benign or malleable enough that it’s possible to enact large and fast social changes and eventually educate people to make the new system work across the board, without messy, nasty and basically impossible to change facets of human nature ending up causing persistent problems?
Well, if you abstract things all the way up to that level.
I will point out that the Non-Libertarian FAQ isn’t actually anti-Libertarian; it’s targeted at a specific (vocal) branch of libertarianism, which I’d call Moral Libertarianism. From the FAQ:
Did you mean to post that here?
I mean a game changer in this community. Obviously Yvain’s blog posts will not have far-reaching real-world political implications.
By the way, singularitarianism is also a seriously minor viewpoint held by cranks.
Yes, but that doesn’t make crank magnetism a good idea.
Wow, that is awesome, I did not know there was a term for that. I always wondered why there seems to be a stacking effect when it came to bad beliefs. Thanks
I think a lot of it is the “vindication of all kooks” effect. NaturalNews is an excellent example.