My priors tell me that statistical arbitrage opportunities in online poker to net 100k a year to be less than 2% for someone who has an IQ of 100. And likely to be diminishing quickly as the years go by.
A few reasons include:
Bots are confirmed to be winning players, in full ring and NL games.
Online poker is mature and has better players.
Rake.
New ’fish” to grinder ratio is getting smaller.
Does anyone have thoughts to the contrary? Perhaps more sophisticated software to catch botters? Or new regulations legalizing online poker to increase new fish?
Depending on you current skill level, I’d think that the less than 2% likelihood is a generous estimate. Online poker was a bubble back in the early to mid 00′s. Presently, edges are razor thin and only a very elite group are making 100K+/year.
Players are highly skilled—and getting better all the time—and able to populate multiple tables simultaneously (as opposed to live poker where you can play only a single table at a time); rake is high; online poker legality is hazy in many parts of the world; transferring money off the site is problematic; you’ll be paying taxes on your winnings; and, like you mentioned, fish are drying up.
Botting, player collusion and hacking certainly have negative effects on the game but it is unclear to what extent.
If you’re an American and live near a casino, you’re more likely to win $100k playing there in games with at least a $5 big blind. But, generally, playing poker for a living is a bitch for a lot of reasons, namely that you’ll be spending a lot of your life in a casino with no windows. Also, statistical variance is difficult to handle emotionally—assuming that you become a winning player to begin with. For every story your read about some guy living high on his poker winnings, there are countless others who went broke and now are either hopeless degenerates scrounging around casinos or working square jobs.
If you do not have an obvious marketable skill set worth 100k/yr, might I suggest getting into sales of some sort. Generally, the barriers to entry are low, and while the success rates are small, the upper bounds of earning potential are very large.
It’s true and has been for years (since the early 00′s boom). Except that bots (to my knowledge) are not really a big problem while the separation of countries (e.g. US players being able to play only with US players) from the general pool of players is. This is why I stopped playing in 2010.
My priors tell me that statistical arbitrage opportunities in online poker to net 100k a year to be less than 2% for someone who has an IQ of 100. And likely to be diminishing quickly as the years go by.
A few reasons include: Bots are confirmed to be winning players, in full ring and NL games. Online poker is mature and has better players. Rake. New ’fish” to grinder ratio is getting smaller.
Does anyone have thoughts to the contrary? Perhaps more sophisticated software to catch botters? Or new regulations legalizing online poker to increase new fish?
Depending on you current skill level, I’d think that the less than 2% likelihood is a generous estimate. Online poker was a bubble back in the early to mid 00′s. Presently, edges are razor thin and only a very elite group are making 100K+/year.
Players are highly skilled—and getting better all the time—and able to populate multiple tables simultaneously (as opposed to live poker where you can play only a single table at a time); rake is high; online poker legality is hazy in many parts of the world; transferring money off the site is problematic; you’ll be paying taxes on your winnings; and, like you mentioned, fish are drying up.
Botting, player collusion and hacking certainly have negative effects on the game but it is unclear to what extent.
If you’re an American and live near a casino, you’re more likely to win $100k playing there in games with at least a $5 big blind. But, generally, playing poker for a living is a bitch for a lot of reasons, namely that you’ll be spending a lot of your life in a casino with no windows. Also, statistical variance is difficult to handle emotionally—assuming that you become a winning player to begin with. For every story your read about some guy living high on his poker winnings, there are countless others who went broke and now are either hopeless degenerates scrounging around casinos or working square jobs.
If you do not have an obvious marketable skill set worth 100k/yr, might I suggest getting into sales of some sort. Generally, the barriers to entry are low, and while the success rates are small, the upper bounds of earning potential are very large.
It’s true and has been for years (since the early 00′s boom). Except that bots (to my knowledge) are not really a big problem while the separation of countries (e.g. US players being able to play only with US players) from the general pool of players is. This is why I stopped playing in 2010.