I think Tetlock and cia might have already done some related work?
Question decomposition is part of the superforecasting commandments, though I can’t recall off the top of my head if they were RCT’d individually or just as a whole.
ETA: This is the relevant paper (h/t Misha Yagudin). It was not about the 10 commandments. Apparently those haven’t been RCT’d at all?
I don’t remember anything specific from reading their stuff, but that would of course be useful. Sadly, I haven’t been able to find any more recent investigations into decomposition, e.g. Connected Papers for MacGregor 1999 gives nothing worthwhile after 2006 on a first skim, but I’ll perhaps look more at it.
I think Tetlock and cia might have already done some related work?
Question decomposition is part of the superforecasting commandments, though I can’t recall off the top of my head if they were RCT’d individually or just as a whole.
ETA: This is the relevant paper (h/t Misha Yagudin). It was not about the 10 commandments. Apparently those haven’t been RCT’d at all?
I don’t remember anything specific from reading their stuff, but that would of course be useful. Sadly, I haven’t been able to find any more recent investigations into decomposition, e.g. Connected Papers for MacGregor 1999 gives nothing worthwhile after 2006 on a first skim, but I’ll perhaps look more at it.