I’m surprised this post doesn’t mention the arguably simplest and most obvious theory of fertility decline. I call it the female opportunity cost theory (FOC). It makes the following claims:
In relationships, the decision to have children is mostly influenced by women rather than men.
Whether a woman wants children depends on her perceived cost to have children.
Due to culture becoming more gender egalitarian, women are more and more expected to have careers rather than assuming the role of a housewife (while the husband is the breadwinner) in the traditional family model.
a) Women who already have careers rather than being housewives perceive a much higher opportunity cost of having children, since this means they miss out on (a substantial part of) their careers. A woman’s perceived opportunity cost is especially high when her male partner doesn’t have a substantially higher income than herself.
b) Young women / teenage girls, who do not yet have careers or children, also perceive a high expected opportunity cost of becoming a mother rather than having a (bigger) career. This was different for girls who grew up in a more traditional society where it was normal for women to become a housewife and have children, while it was the job of the husband to earn money. The option of having a career wasn’t as much a live possibility for these young women as it is now, so they didn’t perceive not having a career as a price they had to pay for having children. Opportunity costs depend on social expectations, on what is considered the default.
This theory says that fertility decline is mainly caused by societies becoming more and more gender egalitarian, by women being expected to have careers rather than to become housewives.
The most important observation which supports this theory is that female IQ and education is negatively correlated with fertility. IQ and education cause better careers and career prospects, which (in a gender egalitarian society) increases the opportunity cost of having children instead.
(This also suggests the worrying consequence that not only overall fertility is decreasing, but also that fertility of more intelligent women is decreasing much faster than of less intelligent women, which would lead to an overall decrease in intelligence. A dysgenic trend.)
The reason why this theory apparently isn’t talked about much in academia is probably that it sounds sexist or ultraconservative. It makes it look like the achievements of woman’s liberation were a mistake. But things that may be good in one way can have bad consequences in another way. We might be inclined to wish the theory isn’t true, but wishful thinking never helps. We should instead wish to know the truth, because this is the only way to find out what we could do.
I’m surprised this post doesn’t mention the arguably simplest and most obvious theory of fertility decline. I call it the female opportunity cost theory (FOC). It makes the following claims:
In relationships, the decision to have children is mostly influenced by women rather than men.
Whether a woman wants children depends on her perceived cost to have children.
Due to culture becoming more gender egalitarian, women are more and more expected to have careers rather than assuming the role of a housewife (while the husband is the breadwinner) in the traditional family model.
a) Women who already have careers rather than being housewives perceive a much higher opportunity cost of having children, since this means they miss out on (a substantial part of) their careers. A woman’s perceived opportunity cost is especially high when her male partner doesn’t have a substantially higher income than herself.
b) Young women / teenage girls, who do not yet have careers or children, also perceive a high expected opportunity cost of becoming a mother rather than having a (bigger) career. This was different for girls who grew up in a more traditional society where it was normal for women to become a housewife and have children, while it was the job of the husband to earn money. The option of having a career wasn’t as much a live possibility for these young women as it is now, so they didn’t perceive not having a career as a price they had to pay for having children. Opportunity costs depend on social expectations, on what is considered the default.
This theory says that fertility decline is mainly caused by societies becoming more and more gender egalitarian, by women being expected to have careers rather than to become housewives.
The most important observation which supports this theory is that female IQ and education is negatively correlated with fertility. IQ and education cause better careers and career prospects, which (in a gender egalitarian society) increases the opportunity cost of having children instead.
(This also suggests the worrying consequence that not only overall fertility is decreasing, but also that fertility of more intelligent women is decreasing much faster than of less intelligent women, which would lead to an overall decrease in intelligence. A dysgenic trend.)
The reason why this theory apparently isn’t talked about much in academia is probably that it sounds sexist or ultraconservative. It makes it look like the achievements of woman’s liberation were a mistake. But things that may be good in one way can have bad consequences in another way. We might be inclined to wish the theory isn’t true, but wishful thinking never helps. We should instead wish to know the truth, because this is the only way to find out what we could do.