I agree that civilisational progress is fairly fragile. But it is fragile in both directions. Climate change and resource wars seem about as likely to lead to global conflict as internecine ethnic strife to me.
I say this partly because immigration seems like a force for mutual cultural understanding and trade, to me. Without it we would probably see more closed-off nations, more likely to go to war. With too much of it, however, there can be bad side effects and cultural rifts if not managed very wisely. Where the line is is no simple question.
I also want to advance the simple main idea that drives my views on this issue, which is that population growth HAS to level off eventually unless we colonise space. The side effects on the economy will equally have to be managed at one time or another.
Will they be easier to manage in the future? Or could growing populations make it even harder? Could managing a fall in population rates be easier if done more slowly?
Maybe. But I don’t feel that’s the tenor of the arguments I am hearing from rationalist and adjacent people right now.
I agree that massive population growth would also be dangerous. We have that in Africa, so I worry about it for Afrika. We don’t have it anywhere else, so I don’t worry about it for any other place.
Empirically, resource wars are much less likely than internecine ethnic strife.
After we have automated much of the economy, there won’t be side effects on the economy. The trick is actually getting there.
Automating much of the economy is more than a little way off, and is highly likely to bring its own problems which I would expect to cross-cut with all these issues. I personally doubt that –in the event humans are not sidelined altogether – advances in AI would make demographic transition much economically easier, but I think that’s in the realm of speculation either way.
I replied before your edit so a bit more:
I agree that civilisational progress is fairly fragile. But it is fragile in both directions. Climate change and resource wars seem about as likely to lead to global conflict as internecine ethnic strife to me.
I say this partly because immigration seems like a force for mutual cultural understanding and trade, to me. Without it we would probably see more closed-off nations, more likely to go to war. With too much of it, however, there can be bad side effects and cultural rifts if not managed very wisely. Where the line is is no simple question.
I also want to advance the simple main idea that drives my views on this issue, which is that population growth HAS to level off eventually unless we colonise space. The side effects on the economy will equally have to be managed at one time or another.
Will they be easier to manage in the future? Or could growing populations make it even harder? Could managing a fall in population rates be easier if done more slowly?
Maybe. But I don’t feel that’s the tenor of the arguments I am hearing from rationalist and adjacent people right now.
I agree that massive population growth would also be dangerous. We have that in Africa, so I worry about it for Afrika. We don’t have it anywhere else, so I don’t worry about it for any other place.
Empirically, resource wars are much less likely than internecine ethnic strife.
After we have automated much of the economy, there won’t be side effects on the economy. The trick is actually getting there.
Automating much of the economy is more than a little way off, and is highly likely to bring its own problems which I would expect to cross-cut with all these issues. I personally doubt that –in the event humans are not sidelined altogether – advances in AI would make demographic transition much economically easier, but I think that’s in the realm of speculation either way.