I hope that the trend of low quality internet content will reverse itself, and settle at a less low quality equilibrium. As an analogy, think about food. We start out at whatever point, then we introduce fast food and processed garbage, people initially respond by consuming too much of it, but then, once they realize how harmful it is, they start to wise up and look for healthier alternatives. (Well, some people do, to some extent.) Same with smoking. With the internet, I think we’re just starting to enter the phase where we realize how harmful it is. I don’t know enough to say “I’m confident that the internet will follow the same path”, but it certainly seems plausible.
Something that makes me feel more optimistic about the internet as opposed to food and smoking is that it is a lot easier to precommit to avoiding things on the internet than it is to precommit to avoiding, say, McDonalds, or a pack of cigarettes. SelfControl is a good example. It allows you to block websites for up to 24 hours at a time. But I see no reason why this sort of thing can’t be expanded. Why only 24 hours? Why only blocking websites? What about apps? What about certain types of content, say, on your newsfeed? What about precommitting to, say, five hours per week as opposed to an outright block? I suspect that this sort of software will evolve to be more and more sophisticated.
Of course, there is tremendous economic incentive for the Facebooks of the world to prevent people from using this sort of productivity software, but it seems like a very hard battle to win. How do you prevent people from realizing that they aren’t as happy as they used to be before they spent 4 hours a day mindlessly browsing your site and getting in to stupid arguments? How do you stop people from precommitting with the click of a button? Maybe I’m just underestimating the ability of internet companies to manipulate us. After all, they’ve been winning for years, and humans don’t have the best track record of plucking low hanging fruits in their personal lives.
Obesity rates in the US haven’t materially declined. Smoking rates declined because of a massive public health campaign orchestrated in large part through the government. And this only happened because the US’s basic info-processing and coordination mechanisms still functioned well enough to reason about the problem. This does not bode well for the US’s ability to repair damage to its info-processing and coordination mechanisms.
I hope that the trend of low quality internet content will reverse itself, and settle at a less low quality equilibrium. As an analogy, think about food. We start out at whatever point, then we introduce fast food and processed garbage, people initially respond by consuming too much of it, but then, once they realize how harmful it is, they start to wise up and look for healthier alternatives. (Well, some people do, to some extent.) Same with smoking. With the internet, I think we’re just starting to enter the phase where we realize how harmful it is. I don’t know enough to say “I’m confident that the internet will follow the same path”, but it certainly seems plausible.
Something that makes me feel more optimistic about the internet as opposed to food and smoking is that it is a lot easier to precommit to avoiding things on the internet than it is to precommit to avoiding, say, McDonalds, or a pack of cigarettes. SelfControl is a good example. It allows you to block websites for up to 24 hours at a time. But I see no reason why this sort of thing can’t be expanded. Why only 24 hours? Why only blocking websites? What about apps? What about certain types of content, say, on your newsfeed? What about precommitting to, say, five hours per week as opposed to an outright block? I suspect that this sort of software will evolve to be more and more sophisticated.
Of course, there is tremendous economic incentive for the Facebooks of the world to prevent people from using this sort of productivity software, but it seems like a very hard battle to win. How do you prevent people from realizing that they aren’t as happy as they used to be before they spent 4 hours a day mindlessly browsing your site and getting in to stupid arguments? How do you stop people from precommitting with the click of a button? Maybe I’m just underestimating the ability of internet companies to manipulate us. After all, they’ve been winning for years, and humans don’t have the best track record of plucking low hanging fruits in their personal lives.
Obesity rates in the US haven’t materially declined. Smoking rates declined because of a massive public health campaign orchestrated in large part through the government. And this only happened because the US’s basic info-processing and coordination mechanisms still functioned well enough to reason about the problem. This does not bode well for the US’s ability to repair damage to its info-processing and coordination mechanisms.