I think this is true, and I also think that this is an even stronger effect in wetlab fields where there is lock-in to particular tools, supplies, and methods.
This is part of my argument for why there appears to be an “innovation overhang” of underexplored regions of concept space. And, in the case of programming dependent disciplines, I expect AI coding assistance to start to eat away at the underexplored ideas, and for full AI researchers to burn through the space of implied hypotheses very fast indeed. I expect this to result in a big surge of progress once we pass that capability threshold.
Or perhaps on the flip side there is a ‘super genius underhang’ where there are insufficient numbers of super competent people to do that work. (Or willing to bet on their future selves being super competent.)
It makes sense for the above average, but not that much above average, researcher to choose to focus on their narrow niche, since their relative prospects are either worse or not evaluable after wading into the large ocean of possibilities.
I think this is true, and I also think that this is an even stronger effect in wetlab fields where there is lock-in to particular tools, supplies, and methods.
This is part of my argument for why there appears to be an “innovation overhang” of underexplored regions of concept space. And, in the case of programming dependent disciplines, I expect AI coding assistance to start to eat away at the underexplored ideas, and for full AI researchers to burn through the space of implied hypotheses very fast indeed. I expect this to result in a big surge of progress once we pass that capability threshold.
Or perhaps on the flip side there is a ‘super genius underhang’ where there are insufficient numbers of super competent people to do that work. (Or willing to bet on their future selves being super competent.)
It makes sense for the above average, but not that much above average, researcher to choose to focus on their narrow niche, since their relative prospects are either worse or not evaluable after wading into the large ocean of possibilities.
Or simply when scaling becomes too expensive.