I think people are just choosing comparison sets wrong? Using the bag anology, there are two pieces of paper labeled “6” so upon being handed a random piece of paper labeled “6″ I should be 50⁄50 as to whether it came from the first bag or the second bag, No?
Imagine someone named Omega offers to play a game with you. Omega has a bag, and they swear on their life that exactly one of the following statements is true:
They put a single piece of paper in the bag, and it has “1” written on it.
They put 10 trillion pieces of paper in the bag, numbered “1”, “2″, “3”, etc. up to ten trillion.
Omega then has an independent neutral third party reach into the bag and pull out a random piece of paper which they then hand to you. You look at the piece of paper and it says “1” on it. Omega doesn’t get to look at the piece of paper, so they don’t know what number you saw on that paper.
Now the game Omega propose to you is: If you can guess which of the two statements was the true one, they’ll give you a million dollars. Otherwise, you get nothing.
Which do you guess? Do you guess that the bag had a single piece of paper in it, or do you guess that the bag had 10 trillion pieces of paper in it?
I think people are just choosing comparison sets wrong? Using the bag anology, there are two pieces of paper labeled “6” so upon being handed a random piece of paper labeled “6″ I should be 50⁄50 as to whether it came from the first bag or the second bag, No?
Eh I didn’t think you can just ignore facts like the components of the bag. You could actually do this experiment, and the probability won’t be 50%.
Imagine someone named Omega offers to play a game with you. Omega has a bag, and they swear on their life that exactly one of the following statements is true:
They put a single piece of paper in the bag, and it has “1” written on it.
They put 10 trillion pieces of paper in the bag, numbered “1”, “2″, “3”, etc. up to ten trillion.
Omega then has an independent neutral third party reach into the bag and pull out a random piece of paper which they then hand to you. You look at the piece of paper and it says “1” on it. Omega doesn’t get to look at the piece of paper, so they don’t know what number you saw on that paper.
Now the game Omega propose to you is: If you can guess which of the two statements was the true one, they’ll give you a million dollars. Otherwise, you get nothing.
Which do you guess? Do you guess that the bag had a single piece of paper in it, or do you guess that the bag had 10 trillion pieces of paper in it?