I don’t agree with your analysis of circular arguments. It seems to be saying electrons are more likely than God because we have a higher prior for electrons than for God. I don’t even think this is true, certainly before the discovery of both electrons and the bible not many people would have put a higher prior on tiny points of negative charge than a divine creator.
The real difference is not how well the evidence demonstrates the theories (as all that can really be said is that it’s “consistent” with them), but what the alternatives are and how well the evidence disproves them. In the case of God, the bible could well exist in its current form, as evidenced by the existence other religious books inconsistent with it (at least most of which must therefore have been created by man). On the other hand, without electrons there simply is no other explanation for the tracks. In this case the experiment knocks out all simpler alternatives. That’s the important difference—it’s in the alternatives not the theory.
On the other hand, without electrons there simply is no other explanation for the tracks.
Oh, I’m sure there are other explanations, such as “cloud imps”—but none that explain the tracks, and all of the other evidence, better than electrons do.
I don’t agree with your analysis of circular arguments. It seems to be saying electrons are more likely than God because we have a higher prior for electrons than for God. I don’t even think this is true, certainly before the discovery of both electrons and the bible not many people would have put a higher prior on tiny points of negative charge than a divine creator.
The real difference is not how well the evidence demonstrates the theories (as all that can really be said is that it’s “consistent” with them), but what the alternatives are and how well the evidence disproves them. In the case of God, the bible could well exist in its current form, as evidenced by the existence other religious books inconsistent with it (at least most of which must therefore have been created by man). On the other hand, without electrons there simply is no other explanation for the tracks. In this case the experiment knocks out all simpler alternatives. That’s the important difference—it’s in the alternatives not the theory.
Oh, I’m sure there are other explanations, such as “cloud imps”—but none that explain the tracks, and all of the other evidence, better than electrons do.