Consider this easy-to-predict eventuality as an indictment of how incredibly ineffective and mindkilled LessWrong is about sex, for obviously ideological reasons (though we may disagree about which side it is that is mindkilled).
Doesn’t follow. The base rate for getting more than 100 comments on a main, non-announcement article is already something like 70%.
Ah, but this was less the case at the time the poll was made (the community has been growing in the meantime) and it was also not clear that this would be a Main as opposed to Discussion post. So that has to be factored into the probabilities.
In order to estimate the base rate, I looked at the first page of recent posts, which goes back to October 2011.
I suspect a similar thing is true of Discussion, but the reference class would need to be more precise. (i.e., non-link, established user author, longer than X words).
Doesn’t follow. The base rate for getting more than 100 comments on a main, non-announcement article is already something like 70%.
Ah, but this was less the case at the time the poll was made (the community has been growing in the meantime) and it was also not clear that this would be a Main as opposed to Discussion post. So that has to be factored into the probabilities.
In order to estimate the base rate, I looked at the first page of recent posts, which goes back to October 2011.
I suspect a similar thing is true of Discussion, but the reference class would need to be more precise. (i.e., non-link, established user author, longer than X words).