Read Mencius Moldbug on why Conservatism always fails (this isn’t a good place to start reading him, seek other recommendations then return to the linked piece) to see which losing strategy I mean.
Summary for people who don’t have infinite amounts of time to waste (unlike me):
The political struggle between conservative and progressive ideology is essentially of religious character, evolving from the ancient conflict between Catholics and Protestants respectively; that conflict, the Catholics mostly lost.
Progressives in general are more or less unaware that they are upholding a religious doctrine.
Conservatives either have been or are incapable of being successful in convincing progressives of this fact, or alternatively, are themselves unaware of its essentially religious content.
Therefore, in engaging in political discourse, conservatives have already conceded the main point.
The proper course of action is to switch venues (e.g., refuse to participate in elections) or to convince Progressives that “while they may think they’re rebels, they’re actually loyal servants of a theocratic one-party state.”
For those seeking to undermine Progressives, shouldn’t you be trying to convince most everyone that Progressives are theocrats, and not just Progressives?
And I thought Moldbug said Progressives win because their politics empower the media, academia, and government, creating a positive feedback loop for Progressive opinions in those arenas.
Not being recognized as theocrats is an advantage they have against conservatives, but that advantage is not as decisive as having a positive feedback loop.
I thought Moldbug said Progressives win because their politics empower the media, academia, and government, creating a positive feedback loop for Progressive opinions in those arenas.
This is what I consider among his most important insights.
Not being recognized as theocrats is an advantage they have against conservatives, but that advantage is not as decisive as having a positive feedback loop.
Probably yes, but I’m not that confident. Some strategies to weaken the loop if it is understood probably do exist and are probably similar to those of fighting the influence of a particular religion in society.
Probably yes, but I’m not that confident. Some strategies to weaken the loop if it is understood probably do exist and are probably similar to those of fighting the influence of a particular religion in society.
Not that confident of what? Something I said?
I agree that the positive feedback loop can weaken. I think it already has. There’s a lot more media outside the official channels, and higher education is in the midst of a huge bubble. Maybe government too, with the unsustainable government debt levels throughout the western world.
Will the debt holders basically take control of governments and force them to run their tax farming businesses more efficiently? The IMF has been doing that to countries for years. That seems a more likely future than a Moldbug restoration.
If the hidden nature of the theocracy is the main problem, we’ll have to wait for a societal wide embrace of Stirner for relief. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
I had hoped that Hitchens might someday turn on his fellow “atheists”, and bring the fight to moral theocracies as he had to supernatural theocracies. Guess not.
Can you think of any moderately prominent person or group who might make the case, and might be listened? I can’t.
EDIT:
On further review of Moldbug, he has a short series of Anti-Idealism blog posts that makes some of the same basic points that Stirner does. He even makes a similar point to what I have above about the New Atheists.
Is that a problem of theocracy per se? That’s a problem in a lot of systems. And there’s no reason one can’t in principle have a theocracy with robust free speech rights. It may well be that that hasn’t happened more because the ideas which are generally anti-theocratic are often clustered with ideas about open discourse. That said, it does seem plausible that a theocracy will be more likely to run into the sort of problems you discuss, purely because if one is thinking in religious terms, then the already high stakes involved in politics become even higher.
there’s no reason one can’t in principle have a theocracy with robust free speech rights.
I’ve yet to hear an argument for free speech that didn’t lean heavily on the risk that any particular policy or belief might be erroneous. My impression is that theocracy is defined as government based on the principal that there are some (divinely revealed?) facts for which there is no risk of error.
If we were sure (risk of error epsilon) of some set of facts and could unambiguously determine whether an assertion conflicted with those facts, why would we tolerate opposition?
Is that a problem of theocracy per se?
As Eliezer noted in the piece I cited, this is a problem of most political systems.
My impression is that theocracy is defined as government based on the principal that there are some (divinely revealed?) facts for which there is no risk of error.
So I was in the process of replying saying that there was potentially an issue here of definitions, but thinking about this more, other definitions I can think of seem about equivalent. So, operating under that definition, one could have a theocracy where for example people said “there’s no risk of error, but the deity in charge likes free will a lot, to the point where as long as they aren’t in the process of actively resisting the divine government, they are free to damn themselves” or something equivalent.
If that’s really the dogma of this (extremely hypothetical) religion, why is it important that the government be religiously based?
Traditionally, religions wanted a slice (or more) of political power to (a) avoid persecution and (b) implement their preferred policies. If (a) is not already resolved, this religion is in no position to argue about what the nation would look like if it were in charge.
I agree. The extreme length which I needed to go to construct a religion which even might have some chance of this is a strong argument that theocracies just won’t act this way. I suppose they could have a commandment in their holy text “run the government”, but this is clearly an extreme stretch.
I personally think that theocracy is bad because it combines the worst features of a totalitarian dictatorship on the one hand, and uncritical thinking on the other. As such, it could potentially turn out much worse than even a run-of-the-mill totalitarian dictatorship; in the latter case, at least the dictator and his politburo have some sort of a real plan...
Probably what came first were several examples of theocracies and other dictatorships in the real world; me realizing they were bad; then me looking for an explanation; which led to the conclusion above.
For those seeking to undermine Progressives, shouldn’t you be trying to convince most everyone that Progressives are theocrats, and not just Progressives?
Probably, but the context of that particular quote was only about convincing progressives.
And I thought Moldbug said Progressives win because their politics empower the media, academia, and government, creating a positive feedback loop for Progressive opinions in those arenas.
I don’t understand this (and don’t have the time to read Moldbug): if the whole struggle is essentially of religious character, then aren’t both sides upholding religious doctrines? So how does engaging with the progressives mean “conceding the main point”—aren’t the progressives likewise conceding the main point when engaging with the conservatives?
Maybe the intended meaning is that the progressives denounce conservatives for being religious, while actually being religious themselves? That would make some sense, but not all conservatives are actually basing their arguments in religion. After all, Konkvistador was talking about “conservatism on Less Wrong”, which certainly wouldn’t fit the bill.
Summary for people who don’t have infinite amounts of time to waste (unlike me):
The political struggle between conservative and progressive ideology is essentially of religious character, evolving from the ancient conflict between Catholics and Protestants respectively; that conflict, the Catholics mostly lost.
Progressives in general are more or less unaware that they are upholding a religious doctrine.
Conservatives either have been or are incapable of being successful in convincing progressives of this fact, or alternatively, are themselves unaware of its essentially religious content.
Therefore, in engaging in political discourse, conservatives have already conceded the main point.
The proper course of action is to switch venues (e.g., refuse to participate in elections) or to convince Progressives that “while they may think they’re rebels, they’re actually loyal servants of a theocratic one-party state.”
For those seeking to undermine Progressives, shouldn’t you be trying to convince most everyone that Progressives are theocrats, and not just Progressives?
And I thought Moldbug said Progressives win because their politics empower the media, academia, and government, creating a positive feedback loop for Progressive opinions in those arenas.
Not being recognized as theocrats is an advantage they have against conservatives, but that advantage is not as decisive as having a positive feedback loop.
This is what I consider among his most important insights.
Probably yes, but I’m not that confident. Some strategies to weaken the loop if it is understood probably do exist and are probably similar to those of fighting the influence of a particular religion in society.
Think Dissolution of the Monasteries.
Not that confident of what? Something I said?
I agree that the positive feedback loop can weaken. I think it already has. There’s a lot more media outside the official channels, and higher education is in the midst of a huge bubble. Maybe government too, with the unsustainable government debt levels throughout the western world.
Will the debt holders basically take control of governments and force them to run their tax farming businesses more efficiently? The IMF has been doing that to countries for years. That seems a more likely future than a Moldbug restoration.
Not that confident the media/academia belief pump cycle is a greater advantage than the hidden nature of their theocracy.
If the hidden nature of the theocracy is the main problem, we’ll have to wait for a societal wide embrace of Stirner for relief. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
I had hoped that Hitchens might someday turn on his fellow “atheists”, and bring the fight to moral theocracies as he had to supernatural theocracies. Guess not.
Can you think of any moderately prominent person or group who might make the case, and might be listened? I can’t.
EDIT: On further review of Moldbug, he has a short series of Anti-Idealism blog posts that makes some of the same basic points that Stirner does. He even makes a similar point to what I have above about the New Atheists.
http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/04/why-do-atheists-believe-in-religion.html http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/05/our-planet-is-infested-with-pseudo.html http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/05/idealism-is-not-great.html
http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/05/unlikely-appeal-of-nonidealism.html
If not for said belief pump, would “theocracy” necessarily even be a boo light?
In what way does the existence or non-existence of a belief pump bear on whether “theocracy” is a boo light?
Why do people believe “theocracy” to be bad? The proximate cause is that it’s what they’ve been taught.
If your brother tries to tell you why [your social theory is wrong], then do not debate him or set forth your own evidence; do not perform replicable experiments or examine history; but turn him in at once to the secret police.
Theocracy doesn’t exactly have a self-correction mechanism to avoid that problem.
Is that a problem of theocracy per se? That’s a problem in a lot of systems. And there’s no reason one can’t in principle have a theocracy with robust free speech rights. It may well be that that hasn’t happened more because the ideas which are generally anti-theocratic are often clustered with ideas about open discourse. That said, it does seem plausible that a theocracy will be more likely to run into the sort of problems you discuss, purely because if one is thinking in religious terms, then the already high stakes involved in politics become even higher.
I’ve yet to hear an argument for free speech that didn’t lean heavily on the risk that any particular policy or belief might be erroneous. My impression is that theocracy is defined as government based on the principal that there are some (divinely revealed?) facts for which there is no risk of error.
If we were sure (risk of error epsilon) of some set of facts and could unambiguously determine whether an assertion conflicted with those facts, why would we tolerate opposition?
As Eliezer noted in the piece I cited, this is a problem of most political systems.
So I was in the process of replying saying that there was potentially an issue here of definitions, but thinking about this more, other definitions I can think of seem about equivalent. So, operating under that definition, one could have a theocracy where for example people said “there’s no risk of error, but the deity in charge likes free will a lot, to the point where as long as they aren’t in the process of actively resisting the divine government, they are free to damn themselves” or something equivalent.
If that’s really the dogma of this (extremely hypothetical) religion, why is it important that the government be religiously based?
Traditionally, religions wanted a slice (or more) of political power to (a) avoid persecution and (b) implement their preferred policies. If (a) is not already resolved, this religion is in no position to argue about what the nation would look like if it were in charge.
I agree. The extreme length which I needed to go to construct a religion which even might have some chance of this is a strong argument that theocracies just won’t act this way. I suppose they could have a commandment in their holy text “run the government”, but this is clearly an extreme stretch.
I personally think that theocracy is bad because it combines the worst features of a totalitarian dictatorship on the one hand, and uncritical thinking on the other. As such, it could potentially turn out much worse than even a run-of-the-mill totalitarian dictatorship; in the latter case, at least the dictator and his politburo have some sort of a real plan...
Which came first, that argument, or you believing that theocracy is bad?
Probably what came first were several examples of theocracies and other dictatorships in the real world; me realizing they were bad; then me looking for an explanation; which led to the conclusion above.
Probably, but the context of that particular quote was only about convincing progressives.
He might, but not here.
I don’t understand this (and don’t have the time to read Moldbug): if the whole struggle is essentially of religious character, then aren’t both sides upholding religious doctrines? So how does engaging with the progressives mean “conceding the main point”—aren’t the progressives likewise conceding the main point when engaging with the conservatives?
Maybe the intended meaning is that the progressives denounce conservatives for being religious, while actually being religious themselves? That would make some sense, but not all conservatives are actually basing their arguments in religion. After all, Konkvistador was talking about “conservatism on Less Wrong”, which certainly wouldn’t fit the bill.