Hm...I personally find it hard to divine much about Norvig’s personal views from this. It seems like a relatively straightforward factual statement about the state of the field (possibly hedging to the extent that I think the arguments in favor of strong AI being possible are relatively conclusive, i.e. >90% in favor of possibility).
When I spoke to Norvig at the 2012 Summit, he seemed to think getting good outcomes from AGI could indeed be pretty hard, but also that AGI was probably a few centuries away. IIRC.
Russell and Norvig, Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Third Edition, 2010, pp. 1037 − 1040. Available here.
I think the key quote here is:
Hm...I personally find it hard to divine much about Norvig’s personal views from this. It seems like a relatively straightforward factual statement about the state of the field (possibly hedging to the extent that I think the arguments in favor of strong AI being possible are relatively conclusive, i.e. >90% in favor of possibility).
When I spoke to Norvig at the 2012 Summit, he seemed to think getting good outcomes from AGI could indeed be pretty hard, but also that AGI was probably a few centuries away. IIRC.
Interesting, thanks.