There’s no particular reason to believe all of his predictions. But that’s also true of anyone else who makes as many predictions as the book does (on similar topics).
When you say “anticipate the future the way he does”, are you asking whether you should believe there’s a 10% chance of his scenario being basicly right?
Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions, and when Robin talks explicitly about his confidence, he doesn’t sound very confident.
Good forecasters consider multiple models before making predictions (see Tetlock’s work). Reading the book is a better way for most people to develop an additional model of how the future might be than reading new LW comments.
Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions
If your model doesn’t even get to 10%, then I say: unless you have hundreds of competing models in your mind (who has?), then do not even bother. Your comment helped me reach the conclusion that reading AoE would be a waste of time.
There’s no particular reason to believe all of his predictions. But that’s also true of anyone else who makes as many predictions as the book does (on similar topics).
When you say “anticipate the future the way he does”, are you asking whether you should believe there’s a 10% chance of his scenario being basicly right?
Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions, and when Robin talks explicitly about his confidence, he doesn’t sound very confident.
Good forecasters consider multiple models before making predictions (see Tetlock’s work). Reading the book is a better way for most people to develop an additional model of how the future might be than reading new LW comments.
If your model doesn’t even get to 10%, then I say: unless you have hundreds of competing models in your mind (who has?), then do not even bother.
Your comment helped me reach the conclusion that reading AoE would be a waste of time.