The Rationality community was never particularly focused on medicine or epidemiology. And yet, we basically got everything about COVID-19 right and did so months ahead of the majority of government officials, journalists, and supposed experts.
Based on anecdotal reports, I’m not convinced that rationalist social media early on is substantially better than educated Chinese social media. I’m also not convinced that I would rather have rationalists in charge of the South Korean or Taiwanese responses than the actual people on the ground.
I think it is true that in important ways the rationalist community did substantially better than plausible “peer” social groups, but nonetheless, ~2 million people still died, and the world is probably worse off for it.
And yet, we basically got everything about COVID-19 right
This specifically is quite surprising to me. I have a list of >30 mistakes I’ve made about covid*, and my impression is that I’m somewhat above average at getting things right. Certainly my impression is that some individuals seem to be noticeably more accurate than me (Divia Eden, Rob Wiblin, Lukas Gloor, and several others come to mind), but I would guess that a reasonably high fraction of people in this community are off by at least as much as I am, were they to venture concrete predictions.
(I have not read most of the post so I apologize if my points have already been covered elsewhere).
* I have not updated the list much since late May. If I were to do so, I suspect the list would at least double in size.
Based on anecdotal reports, I’m not convinced that rationalist social media early on is substantially better than educated Chinese social media. I’m also not convinced that I would rather have rationalists in charge of the South Korean or Taiwanese responses than the actual people on the ground.
It’s probable that this group did better than many Western authorities, but the bar of Kalia Beach, Palestine, is not very high.
I think it is true that in important ways the rationalist community did substantially better than plausible “peer” social groups, but nonetheless, ~2 million people still died, and the world is probably worse off for it.
This specifically is quite surprising to me. I have a list of >30 mistakes I’ve made about covid*, and my impression is that I’m somewhat above average at getting things right. Certainly my impression is that some individuals seem to be noticeably more accurate than me (Divia Eden, Rob Wiblin, Lukas Gloor, and several others come to mind), but I would guess that a reasonably high fraction of people in this community are off by at least as much as I am, were they to venture concrete predictions.
(I have not read most of the post so I apologize if my points have already been covered elsewhere).
* I have not updated the list much since late May. If I were to do so, I suspect the list would at least double in size.