Yes but GPT-3 offers us new evidence we should try to update on. It’s debatable to say how many bits of evidence that provides, but we can also update based on this Discontinuous progress in history: an update:
Growth rates sharply changed in many trends, and this seemed strongly associated with discontinuities. If you experience a discontinuity, it looks like there’s a good chance you’re hitting a new rate of progress, and should expect more of that.
AlphaGo was something we saw before we expected it. GPT-3 text generator was something we saw before we expected it. They were discontinuities.
I agree. I’m not sure how much to update on the things you mention or on other things that have happened since 2013, so I think my answer serves as more of jumping off point than something authoritative. I edited it to mention that.
Yes but GPT-3 offers us new evidence we should try to update on. It’s debatable to say how many bits of evidence that provides, but we can also update based on this Discontinuous progress in history: an update:
AlphaGo was something we saw before we expected it. GPT-3 text generator was something we saw before we expected it. They were discontinuities.
I agree. I’m not sure how much to update on the things you mention or on other things that have happened since 2013, so I think my answer serves as more of jumping off point than something authoritative. I edited it to mention that.